Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.70
AYI · Why this verdict
Why Acuity (AYI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 signal a high-quality business entering its next report in 9 days, but a technical death cross and just 1.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target leave the near-term risk/reward tilted against new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive earnings beats — including a 15.3% positive surprise two quarters ago and an average quarterly beat of 7.1% — reflect a business that has consistently outperformed consensus expectations across varying operating environments. Earnings | The upcoming earnings report in 9 days delivers a fifth consecutive beat, extending the positive-surprise streak. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe beat streak has been accompanied by an implied volatility at 63%, meaning the market is already pricing in a meaningful move; a smaller-than-expected beat or an in-line result could disappoint on the options-implied bar, triggering a sell-the-news reaction. | ||
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 indicates the business is simultaneously improving profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a rare combination that historically correlates with sustained outperformance. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 4 quarters, reflecting continued operating discipline. | →Stable |
| CounterA sole-source supplier situation flagged in company disclosures represents a supply-chain fragility that the Piotroski score cannot capture; a disruption to a critical input source could rapidly impair the operating metrics that currently earn the high score. | ||
A death cross — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day — has triggered a hard technical block, and the stock sits below its long-term trend line with a flat moving-average slope, signaling the price action does not yet support adding exposure. Engine gate (failed) | The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day (a golden cross) within the next 3 months, removing the technical overhang. | →Stable |
| CounterA death cross is a lagging signal, and with earnings 9 days away carrying a perfect beat streak, a strong result could catalyze a sharp recovery that quickly resolves the technical pattern. | ||
A 55% geographic concentration in Mexico for manufacturing exposes the company to tariff, currency, and supply-chain disruptions that are largely outside management's control and that the current valuation may not adequately discount. Bear case | Mexico manufacturing concentration decreases below 40% of total production within 24 months, reflecting supply-chain diversification that reduces the binary policy risk. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh concentration in a single low-cost manufacturing hub can be a competitive cost advantage as long as trade relations remain stable; if the operating cost benefit is structural, the concentration is a feature the market may already be crediting. | ||
Four consecutive earnings beats — including a 15.3% positive surprise two quarters ago and an average quarterly beat of 7.1% — reflect a business that has consistently outperformed consensus expectations across varying operating environments.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The upcoming earnings report in 9 days delivers a fifth consecutive beat, extending the positive-surprise streak.
CounterThe beat streak has been accompanied by an implied volatility at 63%, meaning the market is already pricing in a meaningful move; a smaller-than-expected beat or an in-line result could disappoint on the options-implied bar, triggering a sell-the-news reaction.
A perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 indicates the business is simultaneously improving profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency — a rare combination that historically correlates with sustained outperformance.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 4 quarters, reflecting continued operating discipline.
CounterA sole-source supplier situation flagged in company disclosures represents a supply-chain fragility that the Piotroski score cannot capture; a disruption to a critical input source could rapidly impair the operating metrics that currently earn the high score.
A death cross — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day — has triggered a hard technical block, and the stock sits below its long-term trend line with a flat moving-average slope, signaling the price action does not yet support adding exposure.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day (a golden cross) within the next 3 months, removing the technical overhang.
CounterA death cross is a lagging signal, and with earnings 9 days away carrying a perfect beat streak, a strong result could catalyze a sharp recovery that quickly resolves the technical pattern.
A 55% geographic concentration in Mexico for manufacturing exposes the company to tariff, currency, and supply-chain disruptions that are largely outside management's control and that the current valuation may not adequately discount.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Mexico manufacturing concentration decreases below 40% of total production within 24 months, reflecting supply-chain diversification that reduces the binary policy risk.
CounterHigh concentration in a single low-cost manufacturing hub can be a competitive cost advantage as long as trade relations remain stable; if the operating cost benefit is structural, the concentration is a feature the market may already be crediting.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 3.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,858,795 (0.019% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $260
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:68d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.15
Upside
-1.6%
Downside
10.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.15 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Peer rank at 5.6, and Sentiment at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat streak.
- P2Piotroski Nine Quality Franchise
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Death Cross Technical Block
Trip ifThe 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, confirming a golden cross and removing the technical block.
- P4Mexico Manufacturing Concentration
Trip ifMexico manufacturing exposure falls below 40% of total production for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling successful diversification.