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AXPAmerican Express CompanySell6.0·$336.42+3.37%
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American Express Company (AXP) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $336.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

American Express processes payments and issues cards across four segments with $1,670 billion in worldwide billed business and 86.6 million proprietary cards-in-force as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from merchant discount fees, Card Member annual fees and net interest... Read more

$336.42-1.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#16 of 29 Credit Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.17%(5y avg 1.10%)Payout21.29%sustainable
Stop $319.94Target $333.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$361.94+7.6%24 analysts
$333.20our TP
$336.42price
$361.94mean
$285
$450

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $336.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 24, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$222.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE34.4%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta1.06
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.76neutral
IV40%normal
Max Pain$283-16.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerDelta cobrand portfolio13%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Delta cobrand portfolio continued to represent approximately 13 percent of worldwide billed business and approximately 21 percent of worldwide Card Member loans as of December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerall cobrand portfolios26%
    10-K Item 1A: 'All of our cobrand portfolios in the aggregate accounted for approximately 26 percent of our worldwide billed business for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomersmall business and corporate clients41%
    10-K Item 1A: 'spending by small business and corporate clients, which comprised approximately 41 percent of our worldwide billed business during 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida, New York, Texas, Georgia and New Jersey
    10-K Item 1A: 'Card Members in California, Florida, New York, Texas, Georgia and New Jersey account for a significant portion of U.S. consumer and small business billed business'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.9
Gap
5.0
52w Position
7.5
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $300.03Resistance $340.00

Price Targets

$320
$333
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $336.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $319.94. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $333.20 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $319.94. Stop-loss: $319.94.

What are the risks of investing in AXP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is AXP overvalued or undervalued?

American Express Company trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXP?

35 analysts cover AXP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $362.

What does American Express Company do?American Express processes payments and issues cards across four segments with $1,670 billion in worldwide billed...

American Express processes payments and issues cards across four segments with $1,670 billion in worldwide billed business and 86.6 million proprietary cards-in-force as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from merchant discount fees, Card Member annual fees and net interest income on loans, with approximately 76,800 employees worldwide. Delta is the largest cobrand partner, representing approximately 13% of worldwide billed business.

Related stocks: V (Visa Inc.) · SYF (Synchrony Financial) · MA (Mastercard Incorporated) · COF (Capital One Financial Corporati) · PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.)
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