Value
7.8/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.8 |
- ▸Attractively valued
AUTL · Why this verdict
Why Autolus Therapeutics (AUTL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Autolus is growing revenue 118% YoY from a small base but burns cash at -171% of revenue, trades in a downtrend near $1.54, and has no usable analyst target after the raw figure was rejected as implausible.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -171% of revenue and operating margin at -49.5%, and carries a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Cash burn as a share of revenue narrows well below 171% as revenue scales. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued deep cash burn forces equity raises that dilute holders, and quality concerns put the score below the 4.0 floor. | ||
Revenue is growing 118% YoY, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among biotech peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY over the next 12 months as commercial adoption builds. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth off a very small base says little about scale, and growth rates fade quickly once early launch demand is served. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.6/10 with falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising 1.6% per 30 days, so the stock sits in a pullback rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock is 40% off its 52-week high and volume distribution suggests continued selling pressure. | ||
The raw analyst target of $8.72 was rejected as implausible against the $1.54 price, so upside is measured only by the $1.95 resistance level, 26.6% above the current price. Bear case | Price progresses toward the $1.95 resistance level without breaking the $1.46 stop. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no accepted analyst target the upside case is only technical, and the resistance-based reward-to-risk is low. | ||
Insider activity is limited to one small sale of about $15,682 and no purchases, so insiders are not signaling conviction either way. Insider | Insider buying appears or selling stays negligible below $50K in the next 90 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of insider buying at a depressed price can itself be read as a lack of conviction. | ||
The company is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -171% of revenue and operating margin at -49.5%, and carries a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn as a share of revenue narrows well below 171% as revenue scales.
CounterContinued deep cash burn forces equity raises that dilute holders, and quality concerns put the score below the 4.0 floor.
Revenue is growing 118% YoY, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among biotech peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY over the next 12 months as commercial adoption builds.
CounterTriple-digit growth off a very small base says little about scale, and growth rates fade quickly once early launch demand is served.
Momentum is weak at 2.6/10 with falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising 1.6% per 30 days, so the stock sits in a pullback rather than a confirmed breakdown.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume.
CounterThe stock is 40% off its 52-week high and volume distribution suggests continued selling pressure.
The raw analyst target of $8.72 was rejected as implausible against the $1.54 price, so upside is measured only by the $1.95 resistance level, 26.6% above the current price.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price progresses toward the $1.95 resistance level without breaking the $1.46 stop.
CounterWith no accepted analyst target the upside case is only technical, and the resistance-based reward-to-risk is low.
Insider activity is limited to one small sale of about $15,682 and no purchases, so insiders are not signaling conviction either way.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying appears or selling stays negligible below $50K in the next 90 days.
CounterThe absence of insider buying at a depressed price can itself be read as a lack of conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -171% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 118% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 437%
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.7 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $15,682 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.9 |
| debt equity | 0.1 |
- ▸High IV: 228%
- ▸Above max pain $0
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Catalyst at 3.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY from the current 118%.
- P2Cash Burn Funding Risk
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -200% of revenue from the current -171%.
- P3Downtrend Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below the $1.46 stop level from the current $1.54.
- P4No Reliable Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice drops to less than $1.30, widening the gap to the $1.95 resistance target above 50%.
- P5Minimal Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $100K in a trailing 90 days with fewer than 1 purchase.