Value
10.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
AUTL · Why this verdict
Why Autolus Therapeutics (AUTL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Autolus' quality score of 1.7 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no identified competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score improves above the current 3 out of 9 and the quality score climbs toward the 4.0 floor. | →Stable |
| CounterA cell-therapy biotech pre-commercial launch commonly scores low on balance-sheet-based quality metrics regardless of the value of an approved or near-approved therapy. | ||
The raw analyst target of $8.55 was rejected as implausible, at 5.4x the $1.58 spot price, forcing a fallback to a technical take-profit with the asymmetry gate flagging upside as exhausted at 0%. Warnings | A credible, non-implausible analyst target reemerges as coverage catches up with the company's clinical progress. | →Stable |
| CounterA data-quality rejection doesn't necessarily mean the analyst target is wrong; if therapy-approval catalysts play out as expected, actual upside could be far larger than the model currently allows for. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average, but the average's slope is flat and the 52-week-position score sits low at 1.7, per the technical and momentum notes. Momentum breakdown | The moving-average slope turns clearly positive and the 52-week-position score improves from the current 1.7. | →Stable |
| CounterA flat moving-average slope combined with falling OBV distribution volume suggests the current position above the 200-day average may not hold without renewed buying interest. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with only 1 beat, per the catalyst notes on earnings concerns. Catalyst breakdown | The miss pattern improves and the beat rate rises above the current 1-in-4 level. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a clinical-stage cell-therapy company, reported EPS misses often reflect R&D and commercial-launch spend timing rather than a demand or execution problem. | ||
Analyst coverage is described as light, which dampens the reliability of a sentiment score that otherwise implies 441% upside to the data-quality-flagged analyst target. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst coverage broadens, giving the sentiment score more statistical weight and a more reliable upside estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterAn implied upside figure this extreme, from a thinly covered stock, is more likely to reflect a stale or outlier price target than a genuine, actionable mispricing. | ||
Autolus' quality score of 1.7 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with no identified competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score improves above the current 3 out of 9 and the quality score climbs toward the 4.0 floor.
CounterA cell-therapy biotech pre-commercial launch commonly scores low on balance-sheet-based quality metrics regardless of the value of an approved or near-approved therapy.
The raw analyst target of $8.55 was rejected as implausible, at 5.4x the $1.58 spot price, forcing a fallback to a technical take-profit with the asymmetry gate flagging upside as exhausted at 0%.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A credible, non-implausible analyst target reemerges as coverage catches up with the company's clinical progress.
CounterA data-quality rejection doesn't necessarily mean the analyst target is wrong; if therapy-approval catalysts play out as expected, actual upside could be far larger than the model currently allows for.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average, but the average's slope is flat and the 52-week-position score sits low at 1.7, per the technical and momentum notes.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The moving-average slope turns clearly positive and the 52-week-position score improves from the current 1.7.
CounterA flat moving-average slope combined with falling OBV distribution volume suggests the current position above the 200-day average may not hold without renewed buying interest.
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with only 1 beat, per the catalyst notes on earnings concerns.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The miss pattern improves and the beat rate rises above the current 1-in-4 level.
CounterFor a clinical-stage cell-therapy company, reported EPS misses often reflect R&D and commercial-launch spend timing rather than a demand or execution problem.
Analyst coverage is described as light, which dampens the reliability of a sentiment score that otherwise implies 441% upside to the data-quality-flagged analyst target.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst coverage broadens, giving the sentiment score more statistical weight and a more reliable upside estimate.
CounterAn implied upside figure this extreme, from a thinly covered stock, is more likely to reflect a stale or outlier price target than a genuine, actionable mispricing.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Autolus is a small, cell-therapy biotech with quality metrics below the engine's floor and a rejected analyst target, leaving flat momentum near 52-week lows and a recent earnings-miss pattern as the dominant near-term signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 403%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 1.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $0
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 1.4, Quality at 1.7, and Catalyst at 2.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 6 out of 9, up from the current 3, alongside a quality score above 4.0.
- P2Rejected Implausible Analyst Target
Trip ifModeled upside stays below 1% for 2 consecutive quarters without a restored, plausible analyst target.
- P3Flat Momentum Near Lows
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope falls below 0% per 30 days, turning negative from its current flat reading.
- P4Recent Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifBeat count over the trailing 4 quarters rises above 2, up from the current 1.
- P5Light Coverage Extreme Implied Upside
Trip ifAnalyst coverage rises above 5 analysts, up from the current light-coverage level of about 3.