Value
4.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 42.7x
ATEX · Why this verdict
Why Anterix (ATEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Anterix is growing revenue about 38% YoY with a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a wide moat, but deeply negative operating margins, negative free cash flow and heavy insider selling keep the setup speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries a wide economic moat and best-in-class peer margins, but earnings quality is poor, with operating margin at -556.6% and free cash flow at -109% of net income. Quality breakdown | Operating margin narrows from -556.6% and free cash flow conversion improves over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA moat that does not convert into positive cash flow is unproven; the negative free cash flow and rule-of-40 reading of -974 suggest the moat is not yet monetized. | ||
Anterix has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including the most recent print (+106% surprise), pointing to estimates that are set too low. Earnings | Continued EPS beats at the 2026-11-10 report and following quarters, with beat count staying at 3 of 4 or better. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the last four quarters was a miss (-28%), and the huge surprise percentages come off tiny or negative estimates, so the beats may reflect lumpy non-operating items rather than durable earnings power. | ||
Revenue is growing strongly, about 38% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from roughly $1.4M to $1.96M over the last year. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue keeps expanding toward the $1.97M next-quarter estimate and annual growth stays well above 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is tiny in absolute terms, and the last two reported quarters are identical at $1.958M, which hints at stalling or data-derived figures rather than accelerating growth. | ||
Insiders sold about $15.7M (1.07% of market cap) across 29 sales in 90 days with zero purchases, a bearish signal that caps conviction. Insider | Insider selling should fade and buying should appear if management sees value after the pullback. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling may be routine diversification or pre-scheduled, and institutions are accumulating, so the insider signal may carry little information. | ||
The price of $74.90 sits 27.5% below the analyst target of $95.48, with reward-to-risk of 1.94 against a 14.2% downside to the stop. Targets | Price closes part of the 27.5% gap to the target while the analyst target holds near $95. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNegative momentum, 14% short interest and 79% implied volatility mean the stock can hit the stop before the target; analyst targets after a haircut may still be stale. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat and best-in-class peer margins, but earnings quality is poor, with operating margin at -556.6% and free cash flow at -109% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin narrows from -556.6% and free cash flow conversion improves over the next 12 months.
CounterA moat that does not convert into positive cash flow is unproven; the negative free cash flow and rule-of-40 reading of -974 suggest the moat is not yet monetized.
Anterix has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including the most recent print (+106% surprise), pointing to estimates that are set too low.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats at the 2026-11-10 report and following quarters, with beat count staying at 3 of 4 or better.
CounterOne of the last four quarters was a miss (-28%), and the huge surprise percentages come off tiny or negative estimates, so the beats may reflect lumpy non-operating items rather than durable earnings power.
Revenue is growing strongly, about 38% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from roughly $1.4M to $1.96M over the last year.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue keeps expanding toward the $1.97M next-quarter estimate and annual growth stays well above 15%.
CounterRevenue is tiny in absolute terms, and the last two reported quarters are identical at $1.958M, which hints at stalling or data-derived figures rather than accelerating growth.
Insiders sold about $15.7M (1.07% of market cap) across 29 sales in 90 days with zero purchases, a bearish signal that caps conviction.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should fade and buying should appear if management sees value after the pullback.
CounterSelling may be routine diversification or pre-scheduled, and institutions are accumulating, so the insider signal may carry little information.
The price of $74.90 sits 27.5% below the analyst target of $95.48, with reward-to-risk of 1.94 against a 14.2% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Price closes part of the 27.5% gap to the target while the analyst target holds near $95.
CounterNegative momentum, 14% short interest and 79% implied volatility mean the stock can hit the stop before the target; analyst targets after a haircut may still be stale.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.3 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -109% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $15,710,796 (0.911% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Above max pain $60
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.91%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.57
Upside
+8.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Peer rank at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot, INSIDER:0.91%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.57 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Peer rank at 7.5, Momentum at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Value at 4.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS beats total less than 2 of the next 4 quarters (currently 3 of 4).
- P2Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 38%.
- P3Wide Moat Weak Economics
Trip ifOperating margin falls below -700% from the current -556.6%.
- P4Insider Distribution Overhang
Trip ifTrailing 90-day insider selling stays above $15M with fewer than 1 insider purchase.
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $80 from the current $95.48.