Value
7.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸Attractively valued
ASBH · Why this verdict
Why American Savings Bank, N.A. (ASBH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
American Savings Bank posts strong 22% margins and modest 6.2% revenue growth at an attractive price-to-sales level, but weak peer quality ranking, a small $1.2B cap and no price this run keep it off the buy list.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The shares screen as attractively valued on price-to-sales, with a value component of 7.7. Valuation breakdown | Valuation stays below peers as earnings are reported. | ↑Improving |
| CounterValue confidence is only 0.2 because few valuation inputs were available, so the cheapness signal is thin. | ||
The bank earns strong margins of 22%, with operating and net margin scores at the 10.0 maximum. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 18% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer quality rank is only 1.2, so margins may be lower than regional-bank competitors that score higher on other quality measures. | ||
Revenue growth scores 6.2, which is moderate, steady expansion rather than a rapid ramp. Components | Revenue grows at least 5% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is just 0.33, and rising funding costs could stall bank revenue. | ||
At a $1.2B market cap the bank is below institutional reach, which can leave it under-owned and cheaply priced. Edge rationale | Market cap grows and attracts broader institutional coverage. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall size can also mean low liquidity and no catalyst to close the discount. | ||
The shares screen as attractively valued on price-to-sales, with a value component of 7.7.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation stays below peers as earnings are reported.
CounterValue confidence is only 0.2 because few valuation inputs were available, so the cheapness signal is thin.
The bank earns strong margins of 22%, with operating and net margin scores at the 10.0 maximum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 18% over the next four quarters.
CounterPeer quality rank is only 1.2, so margins may be lower than regional-bank competitors that score higher on other quality measures.
Revenue growth scores 6.2, which is moderate, steady expansion rather than a rapid ramp.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Revenue grows at least 5% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is just 0.33, and rising funding costs could stall bank revenue.
At a $1.2B market cap the bank is below institutional reach, which can leave it under-owned and cheaply priced.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- Market cap grows and attracts broader institutional coverage.
CounterSmall size can also mean low liquidity and no catalyst to close the discount.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.13
Upside
-9.9%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.0; weakest: Peer rank at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Growth at 6.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Momentum at 4.1, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Bank Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 15% from the current 22%.
- P2Attractive Price To Sales
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.7.
- P3Moderate Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% YoY.
- P4Small Cap Institutional Gap
Trip ifMarket cap falls below $0.8B from the current $1.2B.