Value
4.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.5 |
| p ocf | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 15.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
ARR · Why this verdict
Why ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Strong margins: 81%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 6.6 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 6.9 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 78%
Catalyst
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.48
Upside
-9.0%
Downside
6.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.35>1.3, MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 6.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.48 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.6, Momentum at 6.6, and Quality at 5.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.