Value
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.9 |
| p ocf | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 6.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
ARE · Why this verdict
Why Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 9.7 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 48%, FCF yield 15.8%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -12%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 6.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=2)
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $1,195,839 (0.013% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 562.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.05
Upside
-13.2%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 3.0, and Technical at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.