Value
6.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.30
ALVO · Why this verdict
Why Alvotech (ALVO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.3 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -27% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -20%
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (3.4x avg) on up move
Sentiment
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.73 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 226%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:71d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.3, Momentum at 7.8, and Value at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 1.3, Peer rank at 2.4, and Quality at 4.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.