Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.4 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.51
ALNY · Why this verdict
Why Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alnylam combines an unusually strong quality profile — wide economic moat, Rule of 40 score of 101, 96% year-over-year revenue growth, and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — with a forward earnings multiple that remains undemanding for growth of this caliber at a PEG of 0.49; the principal near-term obstacle is a confirmed technical downtrend that, until resolved, limits the initial position size for all but the most patient investors.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 96% year-over-year, the combined growth-and-profitability Rule of 40 score is 101, the business carries a wide economic moat, and the financial health screen scores 8 of 9 — yet the forward earnings multiple sits at a PEG of 0.49, an unusually low price to pay for a franchise with these characteristics. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 remains above 80 over the next 12 months, validating the quality-growth combination at current prices. | →Stable |
| CounterBiotechs with triple-digit revenue growth rates almost always face deceleration as the base effect compounds; the current valuation implicitly assumes prolonged exceptional growth, and any meaningful slowdown would compress the multiple sharply. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 4.1% over 30 days, on-balance volume is falling, and a death cross has triggered — conditions that have historically been poor entry points even for high-quality businesses until the technical backdrop stabilizes. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive, signaling that the supply overhang has cleared. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTechnical price action in high-quality businesses with strong fundamental momentum can diverge from fundamentals for extended periods before mean-reverting sharply; a patient investor who waits for technical confirmation may miss the bulk of the initial recovery move. | ||
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, which at current growth rates is manageable but leaves less financial cushion if revenue momentum softens — elevated leverage can accelerate downside scenarios in a way that unlevered peers would not experience. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 over the next four quarters as cash generation from commercial products pays down obligations. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA high-growth business with a wide economic moat and strong free-cash-flow trajectory can comfortably service elevated debt; leverage used to fund product expansion may be value-accretive if the underlying assets continue to generate returns above the cost of capital. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, with the three beats averaging a 74% upside to estimates; the single miss occurred in the second-most-recent quarter, and the most recent quarter returned to a 35% beat, suggesting the underlying earnings trajectory remains constructive. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters without interruption over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe average surprise figure is significantly inflated by a 120% beat in the oldest quarter of the window, which may reflect a one-time estimate reset rather than durable guidance discipline; if consensus estimates are now better calibrated, future surprises could narrow materially. | ||
Revenue grew 96% year-over-year, the combined growth-and-profitability Rule of 40 score is 101, the business carries a wide economic moat, and the financial health screen scores 8 of 9 — yet the forward earnings multiple sits at a PEG of 0.49, an unusually low price to pay for a franchise with these characteristics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 50% year-over-year and the Rule of 40 remains above 80 over the next 12 months, validating the quality-growth combination at current prices.
CounterBiotechs with triple-digit revenue growth rates almost always face deceleration as the base effect compounds; the current valuation implicitly assumes prolonged exceptional growth, and any meaningful slowdown would compress the multiple sharply.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 4.1% over 30 days, on-balance volume is falling, and a death cross has triggered — conditions that have historically been poor entry points even for high-quality businesses until the technical backdrop stabilizes.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive, signaling that the supply overhang has cleared.
CounterTechnical price action in high-quality businesses with strong fundamental momentum can diverge from fundamentals for extended periods before mean-reverting sharply; a patient investor who waits for technical confirmation may miss the bulk of the initial recovery move.
The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, which at current growth rates is manageable but leaves less financial cushion if revenue momentum softens — elevated leverage can accelerate downside scenarios in a way that unlevered peers would not experience.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 2.0 over the next four quarters as cash generation from commercial products pays down obligations.
CounterA high-growth business with a wide economic moat and strong free-cash-flow trajectory can comfortably service elevated debt; leverage used to fund product expansion may be value-accretive if the underlying assets continue to generate returns above the cost of capital.
Three of the last four quarters produced positive earnings surprises, with the three beats averaging a 74% upside to estimates; the single miss occurred in the second-most-recent quarter, and the most recent quarter returned to a 35% beat, suggesting the underlying earnings trajectory remains constructive.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters without interruption over the next 12 months.
CounterThe average surprise figure is significantly inflated by a 120% beat in the oldest quarter of the window, which may reflect a one-time estimate reset rather than durable guidance discipline; if consensus estimates are now better calibrated, future surprises could narrow materially.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 9.2 |
| Net margin | 6.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 90%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 38% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 96% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (4.9x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 110%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,145,853 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-21.5%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.4 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.64
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:6.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
5.95
Upside
+89.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 20, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.1) with weak momentum (2.7)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -58% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.1, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.95 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Elite Growth Quality
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Blocks Entry
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 20 or more consecutive sessions.
- P3Leverage Adds Downside Cushion Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5 within 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Earnings Large Consistent Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.