Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.06
- ▸Attractively valued
AII · Why this verdict
Why American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.7 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 6.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 26%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 314% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 55% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 7.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 78 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 4.0 |
| holder change | 9.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,184,354 (0.440% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-9.5% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:80d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.44%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.63
Upside
-9.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.63.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Quality at 7.8, and Peer rank at 7.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Insider at 5.9, and Sentiment at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.63 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.