Value
4.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.7 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.2 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.02
AGYS · Why this verdict
Why Agilysys (AGYS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 8.5 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 126% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $27,289 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.48
Upside
+22.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.48 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.7, Sentiment at 7.6, and Quality at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Peer rank at 3.5, and Value at 4.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.