Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ACRS · Why this verdict
Why Aclaris Therapeutics (ACRS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aclaris is a cash-burning biotech with shrinking revenue, but losses are contained near -$0.15 per share, results mostly beat estimates, and the $8.86 analyst target implies 136.2% upside from $3.75.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Aclaris is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -511% of revenue, no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Cash burn narrows relative to revenue as pipeline spending is managed over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio score of 9.5 and low debt give a cash runway, but a burn of this scale relative to revenue will require new funding if programs fail. | ||
Revenue is declining 8% YoY, with the June 2026 quarter at $1.63M versus $1.78M a year earlier and a Biosion counterparty concentration risk. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes above $2M as collaboration income resumes. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue fell from $9.2M in December 2024 to about $1.6M, and dependence on one counterparty makes a rebound uncertain. | ||
Losses are contained near -$0.15 per share, with 3 beats in the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of +2.1%. Earnings track record | EPS stays around -$0.15 and meets or beats estimates in the November 5 report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss (-17.07% in February 2026) followed far larger misses in 2024 and 2025, so estimate accuracy has been poor historically. | ||
The $8.86 analyst target implies 136.2% upside from the $3.75 price, supported by an analyst rating score of 8.26/10. Analyst target | Price moves toward the analyst target as clinical milestones are reached. | →Stable |
| CounterThe target assumes pipeline success in a binary industry, and a 43% drawdown shows the market doubts it. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising 5.3% over 30 days and on-balance volume shows accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average as accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 5.67 and implied volatility of 174% show the options market is heavily positioned for downside. | ||
Aclaris is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -511% of revenue, no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn narrows relative to revenue as pipeline spending is managed over the next 12 months.
CounterA current ratio score of 9.5 and low debt give a cash runway, but a burn of this scale relative to revenue will require new funding if programs fail.
Revenue is declining 8% YoY, with the June 2026 quarter at $1.63M versus $1.78M a year earlier and a Biosion counterparty concentration risk.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes above $2M as collaboration income resumes.
CounterRevenue fell from $9.2M in December 2024 to about $1.6M, and dependence on one counterparty makes a rebound uncertain.
Losses are contained near -$0.15 per share, with 3 beats in the last 4 quarters and an average surprise of +2.1%.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS stays around -$0.15 and meets or beats estimates in the November 5 report.
CounterThe one miss (-17.07% in February 2026) followed far larger misses in 2024 and 2025, so estimate accuracy has been poor historically.
The $8.86 analyst target implies 136.2% upside from the $3.75 price, supported by an analyst rating score of 8.26/10.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as clinical milestones are reached.
CounterThe target assumes pipeline success in a binary industry, and a 43% drawdown shows the market doubts it.
The stock is below its 200-day average, but the average is still rising 5.3% over 30 days and on-balance volume shows accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average as accumulation continues.
CounterA put/call ratio of 5.67 and implied volatility of 174% show the options market is heavily positioned for downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -511% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 149%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 190%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
7.78
Upside
+116.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 7.78.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 8.1, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.4, Quality at 2.1, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Heavy Cash Burn
Trip ifFCF burn narrows to less than 200% of revenue from the current 511%.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $3M from $1.63M in the June 2026 quarter.
- P3Losses Contained Beats Estimates
Trip ifEPS loss exceeds $0.25 per share in any quarter.
- P4Large Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $5 from the current $8.86.
- P5Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $3.49 stop level, more than 7% under the current $3.75.