Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
ACRS · Why this verdict
Why Aclaris Therapeutics (ACRS) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The setup cleared both the momentum gate at 6.8 and the asymmetry gate at a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.76, with an 80% analyst-target upside against just 7.0% downside to stop. Reward-to-risk math | Momentum should stay above the gate's 5.5 threshold and the reward-to-risk ratio should remain above 1.5 over the next 12 months for the favorable setup to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality remains a core concern, with a score of 2.1 sitting well below the 4.0 floor, which caps position sizing at avoid regardless of the favorable asymmetry. | ||
The quality score of 2.1 remains below the 4.0 floor cited as grounds to exit, driven by a weak Piotroski F-score of 3 out of 9, no competitive moat, and cash-burning free cash flow. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-score should climb out of the bottom quartile and free cash flow should move toward breakeven over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current ratio component reads a strong 9.0, indicating substantial near-term liquidity to fund continued operations despite the cash burn. | ||
Insiders sold $1,359,000 over the past 90 days with zero offsetting buys, a level the engine flags as moderate relative to market cap and enough to trigger a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider transactions should shift back toward net buying, or at least stop showing net selling, over the next 12 months for the bearish insider signal to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterPosition-sizing factors do not list the insider selling as a standalone cut factor, only the speculative cap, suggesting the engine does not weigh this selling as severely as the quality concern. | ||
Revenue growth of 37% year-over-year drives a growth score of 10.0, and sentiment notes cite an 80% analyst-target upside, even though coverage is explicitly described as light. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain in the double digits and analyst coverage should broaden over the next 12 months for the growth-and-upside case to be reliable. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage explicitly dampens the reliability of the sentiment signal feeding that 80% upside figure. | ||
The trailing four quarters show two beats, one miss, and one in-line result, leaving the average surprise barely positive at 0.2% heading into the next report in 33 days. Earnings | The average surprise should climb meaningfully above the current near-zero level over the next reported quarter for earnings execution to be considered strengthening. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat of 4.93%, the second consecutive positive surprise following the prior in-line result, which could mark a modest improving trend. | ||
The setup cleared both the momentum gate at 6.8 and the asymmetry gate at a reward-to-risk ratio of 3.76, with an 80% analyst-target upside against just 7.0% downside to stop.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Momentum should stay above the gate's 5.5 threshold and the reward-to-risk ratio should remain above 1.5 over the next 12 months for the favorable setup to hold.
CounterQuality remains a core concern, with a score of 2.1 sitting well below the 4.0 floor, which caps position sizing at avoid regardless of the favorable asymmetry.
The quality score of 2.1 remains below the 4.0 floor cited as grounds to exit, driven by a weak Piotroski F-score of 3 out of 9, no competitive moat, and cash-burning free cash flow.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-score should climb out of the bottom quartile and free cash flow should move toward breakeven over the next 12 months for the exit signal to reverse.
CounterThe current ratio component reads a strong 9.0, indicating substantial near-term liquidity to fund continued operations despite the cash burn.
Insiders sold $1,359,000 over the past 90 days with zero offsetting buys, a level the engine flags as moderate relative to market cap and enough to trigger a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should shift back toward net buying, or at least stop showing net selling, over the next 12 months for the bearish insider signal to ease.
CounterPosition-sizing factors do not list the insider selling as a standalone cut factor, only the speculative cap, suggesting the engine does not weigh this selling as severely as the quality concern.
Revenue growth of 37% year-over-year drives a growth score of 10.0, and sentiment notes cite an 80% analyst-target upside, even though coverage is explicitly described as light.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain in the double digits and analyst coverage should broaden over the next 12 months for the growth-and-upside case to be reliable.
CounterLight analyst coverage explicitly dampens the reliability of the sentiment signal feeding that 80% upside figure.
The trailing four quarters show two beats, one miss, and one in-line result, leaving the average surprise barely positive at 0.2% heading into the next report in 33 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The average surprise should climb meaningfully above the current near-zero level over the next reported quarter for earnings execution to be considered strengthening.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a beat of 4.93%, the second consecutive positive surprise following the prior in-line result, which could mark a modest improving trend.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aclaris Therapeutics shows a favorable technical setup with strong momentum, a wide analyst-target upside, and double-digit revenue growth, but quality sits below the exit threshold and insiders have been notable net sellers, keeping the position capped at avoid.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -385% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 37% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 81%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,359,000 (0.177% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.1 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 91%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.18%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
3.86
Upside
+57.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.0, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Technical at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Asymmetry Strong Momentum
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio falls below 1.5 from the current 3.76.
- P2Quality Below Floor Exit Signal
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.1.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling falls below $500,000, or turns net-buy, over the next 2 quarters.
- P4Strong Revenue Growth And Upside
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 37%.
- P5Mixed Earnings Thin Average Surprise
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below -10% in the next reported quarter.