Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.24
ACNB · Why this verdict
Why ACNB (ACNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACNB is a regional bank with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, strong 34% margins and bullish momentum, but the price of $65.42 is already 12.1% above the $57.52 analyst target and near its 52-week high, so further upside is limited.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Net margins of 34% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 hold up despite 68.0% of loans sitting in commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, and construction. Bear case | Net margin stays above 30% and credit quality remains stable over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy commercial real estate and construction exposure is the classic regional-bank credit risk, and the bank has no competitive moat. | ||
ACNB has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $1.55 versus $1.47 in October 2026, for an average surprise of +7.0%. Avg surprise pct | Beats continue through the January 2027 report with average surprise staying positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe streak followed a miss and an in-line quarter in 2025, and reported quarterly revenue diverges from the yfinance figure by about 18% to 21%, so the revenue base is uncertain. | ||
At $65.42 the stock is 12.1% above the $57.52 analyst target and 3.2% from its 52-week high, so the analyst view is already exceeded. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings keep beating. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the target reached, asymmetry is negative (-1.76), and 6.9% downside to the stop outweighs any upside the analysts see. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.5/10 with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI near 64 and rising on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Price stays above the 200-day average and on-balance volume keeps rising. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 2.00 and a 52-week-high proximity suggest the breakout may already be priced in. | ||
Forward P/E of 11.5x and PEG of 1.08 are reasonable, supported by 8.8/10 earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 13x while earnings growth continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe valuation components rank only 3.7 against peers, so the bank is not cheap relative to others. | ||
Net margins of 34% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 hold up despite 68.0% of loans sitting in commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, and construction.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 30% and credit quality remains stable over 12 months.
CounterHeavy commercial real estate and construction exposure is the classic regional-bank credit risk, and the bank has no competitive moat.
ACNB has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $1.55 versus $1.47 in October 2026, for an average surprise of +7.0%.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- Beats continue through the January 2027 report with average surprise staying positive.
CounterThe streak followed a miss and an in-line quarter in 2025, and reported quarterly revenue diverges from the yfinance figure by about 18% to 21%, so the revenue base is uncertain.
At $65.42 the stock is 12.1% above the $57.52 analyst target and 3.2% from its 52-week high, so the analyst view is already exceeded.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings keep beating.
CounterWith the target reached, asymmetry is negative (-1.76), and 6.9% downside to the stop outweighs any upside the analysts see.
Momentum is strong at 7.5/10 with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI near 64 and rising on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day average and on-balance volume keeps rising.
CounterA put/call ratio of 2.00 and a 52-week-high proximity suggest the breakout may already be priced in.
Forward P/E of 11.5x and PEG of 1.08 are reasonable, supported by 8.8/10 earnings growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 13x while earnings growth continues.
CounterThe valuation components rank only 3.7 against peers, so the bank is not cheap relative to others.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.41 (n=4)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $96,264 (0.015% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 0.7 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.61
Upside
-10.4%
Downside
6.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 6.8; weakest: Growth at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Catalyst at 6.6, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 3.5, Peer rank at 4.3, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $55, more than 15% under the current $65.42.
- P3Strong Margins Despite Loan Concentration
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 34%.
- P4Breakout Momentum Intact
Trip ifPrice falls below the $62.84 stop level, more than 4% under the current $65.42.
- P5Moderate Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 11.5x.