Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.04
- ▸Attractively valued
ACNB · Why this verdict
Why ACNB (ACNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten estimates in all four trailing quarters, most recently by 4.62%, with an average surprise of 11.1%, and the setup is explicitly flagged as a catalyst play given earnings arrive in 19 days on top of that streak. Edge rationale | The beat streak should extend to a fifth consecutive quarter when the company reports in 19 days for the catalyst thesis to play out. | →Stable |
| CounterBear case notes explicitly flag that earnings estimates are trending down, which could make the next comparison easier to beat but signals cooling underlying expectations. | ||
Shares sit within 2.4% of the 52-week high and the resistance-based target has essentially been reached, producing a negative risk/reward ratio of -1.28 that failed the asymmetry gate. Reward-to-risk math | A new resistance level would need to open meaningfully more upside than the 5.0% stop distance for the risk/reward to turn favorable again over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe setup is independently classified as a breakout, with a golden cross and price above all major moving averages, which could carry price through resistance to a new, higher target. | ||
Revenue growth of 43% year-over-year and margins near 32% support a growth score of 7.0, with peer ranking calling the company an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain well into double digits and margins should hold near current levels over the next 12 months for the growth thesis to be sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings-growth component itself reads a much more modest 4.1, a notably softer figure than the revenue-growth component, suggesting profit growth is not keeping pace with the top line. | ||
Even with a perfect beat streak, bear case notes explicitly flag that analyst earnings estimates are trending down, a signal that forward expectations are being cut even as trailing results outperform. Bear case | Analyst estimate revisions should stabilize or turn upward over the next 12 months for the downward-revision concern to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterThe catalyst framing of the upcoming earnings report, backed by a perfect four-quarter beat streak, suggests the company has consistently cleared whatever estimates analysts set, however they trend. | ||
Risk notes flag elevated short interest at a component reading of 9.2, high days-to-cover of 7.9, and implied volatility of 103%, even as the options put/call ratio itself sits at a low 0.5. Risk breakdown | Short interest and days-to-cover should decline over the next 12 months if bearish positioning against the stock is unwinding. | →Stable |
| CounterThe put/call ratio at 0.5 shows options positioning is actually skewed toward calls, in tension with the elevated short-interest reading elsewhere in the risk notes. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in all four trailing quarters, most recently by 4.62%, with an average surprise of 11.1%, and the setup is explicitly flagged as a catalyst play given earnings arrive in 19 days on top of that streak.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a fifth consecutive quarter when the company reports in 19 days for the catalyst thesis to play out.
CounterBear case notes explicitly flag that earnings estimates are trending down, which could make the next comparison easier to beat but signals cooling underlying expectations.
Shares sit within 2.4% of the 52-week high and the resistance-based target has essentially been reached, producing a negative risk/reward ratio of -1.28 that failed the asymmetry gate.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- A new resistance level would need to open meaningfully more upside than the 5.0% stop distance for the risk/reward to turn favorable again over the next 12 months.
CounterThe setup is independently classified as a breakout, with a golden cross and price above all major moving averages, which could carry price through resistance to a new, higher target.
Revenue growth of 43% year-over-year and margins near 32% support a growth score of 7.0, with peer ranking calling the company an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain well into double digits and margins should hold near current levels over the next 12 months for the growth thesis to be sustained.
CounterThe earnings-growth component itself reads a much more modest 4.1, a notably softer figure than the revenue-growth component, suggesting profit growth is not keeping pace with the top line.
Even with a perfect beat streak, bear case notes explicitly flag that analyst earnings estimates are trending down, a signal that forward expectations are being cut even as trailing results outperform.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst estimate revisions should stabilize or turn upward over the next 12 months for the downward-revision concern to ease.
CounterThe catalyst framing of the upcoming earnings report, backed by a perfect four-quarter beat streak, suggests the company has consistently cleared whatever estimates analysts set, however they trend.
Risk notes flag elevated short interest at a component reading of 9.2, high days-to-cover of 7.9, and implied volatility of 103%, even as the options put/call ratio itself sits at a low 0.5.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest and days-to-cover should decline over the next 12 months if bearish positioning against the stock is unwinding.
CounterThe put/call ratio at 0.5 shows options positioning is actually skewed toward calls, in tension with the elevated short-interest reading elsewhere in the risk notes.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ACNB carries a perfect earnings beat streak into a near-term catalyst and strong growth metrics, but shares already sit near their target with a negative risk/reward setup and analyst estimates trending down, arguing for holding rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 43% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.8 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.51
Upside
-13.0%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 16d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 7.1; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Growth at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Sentiment at 5.6, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Into Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in the next reported quarter.
- P2Negative Asymmetry Near Target
Trip ifRisk/reward ratio rises above 0.5 from the current -1.28.
- P3Strong Growth And Margin Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 43%.
- P4Estimates Trending Down Despite Beats
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise rises above 15% from the current 11.1%, signaling an improving estimate trend.
- P5Elevated Short Interest And Days To Cover
Trip ifDays-to-cover falls below 3.0 from the current 7.9.