Value
6.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.1x
ACAD · Why this verdict
Why ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 8.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 37%
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 41% FCF/NI
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $910,063 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 5.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 0.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
- ▸High IV: 97%
- ▸Above max pain $18
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
5.41
Upside
+32.1%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 52
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.41 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.5, Sentiment at 6.4, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, and Insider at 3.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.