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ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.Sell5.2·$21.63-0.32%
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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $21.63: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing).

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two FDA-approved neurological products: NUPLAZID (the only approved treatment for Parkinson's disease psychosis) and DAYBUE (the only approved treatment for Rett syndrome). Combined net product sales... Read more

$21.63+31.7% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#78 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.15%
Stop $20.45Target $28.48(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$31.65+46.3%20 analysts
$28.48our TP
$21.63price
$31.65mean
$17
$45

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $21.63: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

About ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals generated $1,071.5 million in net product sales in 2025 — up from $957.8 million in 2024 — split between NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), the only FDA-approved treatment for Parkinson's disease psychosis since April 2016, and DAYBUE (trofinetide), the only FDA-approved treatment for Rett syndrome since March 2023. DAYBUE received Health Canada marketing authorization in October 2024 and Israeli Ministry of Health approval in December 2025, beginning international expansion from a predominantly U.S. commercial base. In December 2025, the FDA approved DAYBUE STIX, a powder reformulation offering additional dosing flexibility.

Revenue flows from prescription drug sales through a limited network of specialty distributors and specialty pharmacies in the U.S. NUPLAZID targets an estimated 130,000 Parkinson's disease patients treated annually with atypical antipsychotics in the United States, with roughly 20% currently using NUPLAZID; the company has a stated goal of $1.0 billion in NUPLAZID net sales in 2028. DAYBUE addresses an estimated 6,000 to 9,000 Rett syndrome patients in the U.S., with growth depending on new patient adoption and persistency rates. Competitors for NUPLAZID include off-label use of generics such as quetiapine, clozapine, risperidone, aripiprazole, and olanzapine. DAYBUE faces competitive programs including UCB S.A.'s announced plans to initiate a Phase 3 trial of fenfluramine in Rett syndrome during 2026, as well as gene therapy trials by Taysha Gene Therapies and Neurogene. The Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program could subject NUPLAZID to HHS-negotiated pricing as early as 2029, when the company believes it may qualify as a specified small manufacturer eligible for a phase-in discount.

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The lead pipeline candidate, remlifanserin (ACP-204), is in a Phase 2 RADIANT study for Alzheimer's disease psychosis; enrollment is expected to complete in the first half of 2026, with top-line results anticipated in the August to October 2026 timeframe. A positive readout would advance remlifanserin into two Phase 3 studies with nearly identical design. A negative result would follow three consecutive trial failures — Phase 3 ADVANCE-2 for pimavanserin in schizophrenia (March 2024), a pediatric autism Phase 2 (October 2024), and Phase 3 COMPASS PWS for intranasal carbetocin (September 2025) — leaving the pipeline to Phase 2 assets in Lewy Body Dementia psychosis and early-stage programs in major depressive disorder and essential tremor. In April 2026, ACADIA disclosed via Form 8-K the planned retirement of Dr. Elizabeth Thompson, Head of Research and Development, with a search for a replacement underway during this critical readout period.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Margin of safety: 34%
Analyst upside: 32%
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing)
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.8
P/E (Fwd)24.3
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA31.4
Profit Mgn34.3%
ROE37.3%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$19-12.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.9
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.30Resistance $22.39

Price Targets

$20
$28
A.Upside+31.7%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACAD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $21.63: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $20.45. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACAD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.48 (+31.7% upside). Prior stop was $20.45. Stop-loss: $20.45.

What are the risks of investing in ACAD?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.5x (earnings normalizing); Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is ACAD overvalued or undervalued?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 24.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ACAD?

27 analysts cover ACAD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

What does ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. do?ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two FDA-approved neurological products:...

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with two FDA-approved neurological products: NUPLAZID (the only approved treatment for Parkinson's disease psychosis) and DAYBUE (the only approved treatment for Rett syndrome). Combined net product sales were $1,071.5M in 2025; remlifanserin (Phase 2) for Alzheimer's disease psychosis is the most advanced pipeline candidate with data readout expected Aug-Oct 2026.

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