Value
8.9/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8 |
- ▸Attractively valued
AAUC · Why this verdict
Why Allied Gold (AAUC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Allied Gold pairs strong revenue growth (45% YoY) and cash generation with an attractive valuation, but it trades below its 200-day average with limited near-term upside to resistance.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The shares are attractively valued, with price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA scores of 9.1 and 8.9 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | Valuation scores stay above 8 while earnings grow, so re-rating comes from earnings rather than multiple expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterValuation confidence is only 0.4, and cheap multiples on a gold miner can reflect peak-price earnings. | ||
Revenue growth of 45% YoY places Allied Gold among the faster-growing names in its industry. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months as gold production and prices hold. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is a single-metric read (confidence 0.33) and may reflect gold price spikes or production ramp that reverse. | ||
The business is free-cash-flow positive with a 10% FCF margin and 5.5% FCF yield, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | FCF margin holds at or above 10% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins are only moderate, and return on equity and net margin components score 0.0 out of 10, so profits may not be durable if gold falls. | ||
The shares sit below the 200-day average with a flat slope and falling on-balance volume, with RSI near 49. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and on-balance volume turns up within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSelling pressure is distributive (falling OBV) and the downtrend could persist if gold sentiment weakens. | ||
Upside to the $21.38 resistance level is 8.5% versus 6.5% downside to the $18.42 support, and no analyst target is available. Take profit | Price breaks through $21.38 resistance on volume, opening further upside. | →Stable |
| CounterWith reward-to-risk near 1.3 and no analyst coverage target, the setup offers little margin for error. | ||
The shares are attractively valued, with price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA scores of 9.1 and 8.9 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation scores stay above 8 while earnings grow, so re-rating comes from earnings rather than multiple expansion.
CounterValuation confidence is only 0.4, and cheap multiples on a gold miner can reflect peak-price earnings.
Revenue growth of 45% YoY places Allied Gold among the faster-growing names in its industry.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months as gold production and prices hold.
CounterGrowth is a single-metric read (confidence 0.33) and may reflect gold price spikes or production ramp that reverse.
The business is free-cash-flow positive with a 10% FCF margin and 5.5% FCF yield, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin holds at or above 10% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterMargins are only moderate, and return on equity and net margin components score 0.0 out of 10, so profits may not be durable if gold falls.
The shares sit below the 200-day average with a flat slope and falling on-balance volume, with RSI near 49.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and on-balance volume turns up within 12 months.
CounterSelling pressure is distributive (falling OBV) and the downtrend could persist if gold sentiment weakens.
Upside to the $21.38 resistance level is 8.5% versus 6.5% downside to the $18.42 support, and no analyst target is available.
→StableTake profit
- Expectation
- Price breaks through $21.38 resistance on volume, opening further upside.
CounterWith reward-to-risk near 1.3 and no analyst coverage target, the setup offers little margin for error.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 10%, FCF yield 5.3%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 45% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.9 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 1.1 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.9
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Peer rank at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.7, Momentum at 3.7, and Technical at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY.
- P2Fcf Positive Solid Quality
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 5% from the current 10%.
- P3Attractive Valuation Multiples
Trip ifPrice rises above $25, more than 25% above the current $19.70, without matching earnings growth.
- P4Downtrend Below Long Term Average
Trip ifRSI rises above 60 from about 49 with price above the 200-day average.
- P5Limited Upside To Resistance
Trip ifPrice falls below the $18.42 support level, more than 6% under the current $19.70.