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Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $278.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%).

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing semiconductors, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025 with operations in 30+ countries. Revenue comes from sales to electronics designers and manufacturers globally; ~50% of products ship to China and ~60% of... Read more

$278.00+1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#13 of 45 Semiconductors
Stop $258.34Target $282.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$274.94-1.1%32 analysts
$282.07our TP
$278.00price
$274.94mean
$200
$330

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $278.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.50, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.8/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)48.0
P/E (Fwd)30.8
Mkt Cap$255.8B
EV/EBITDA30.6
Profit Mgn29.1%
ROE32.3%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.99
Dividend2.02%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$170-38.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina (products shipped)50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50% of our revenue in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographiccustomers outside United States60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'About 60% of our revenue comes from customers with headquarter locations outside the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Hagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President of Texas Instruments, announced intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. No reason cited; no successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.8
Pe
2.6
Forward Pe
3.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.0
Forward P/E: 30.8xPEG: 1.50
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $195.46Resistance $287.83

Price Targets

$258
$282
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $278.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.50, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.8/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $282.07 (+1.5%), stop $258.34 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $282.07 (+1.5% upside). Target $282.07 (+1.5%), stop $258.34 (−7.6%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $258.34.

What are the risks of investing in TXN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is TXN overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a P/E of 48.0 (forward 30.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TXN?

44 analysts cover TXN with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $275.

What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing semiconductors, generating $17.68B revenue in...

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing semiconductors, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025 with operations in 30+ countries. Revenue comes from sales to electronics designers and manufacturers globally; ~50% of products ship to China and ~60% of customers are headquartered outside the U.S.

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