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TXNTexas Instruments IncorporatedBuy Wait5.4·$301.73+1.56%
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Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $284.90. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $301.73. Engine's entry $284.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog (79% of 2025 revenue) and embedded processing (15%) semiconductors sold to 100,000+ electronics manufacturers globally, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025. About 60% of revenue comes from customers headquartered outside the U.S.;... Read more

$301.73+13.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#21 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.39%
IncomeYield1.89%(5y avg 2.71%)Payout95.04%at-risk
Entry $284.90(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $256.47Target $324.88(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$291.55-3.4%33 analysts
$324.88our TP
$301.73price
$291.55mean
$200
$400

Wait for pullback to $284.90. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $301.73. Engine's entry $284.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.44, quality 8.0/10, growth 7.8/10). Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.6
P/E (Fwd)32.0
Mkt Cap$274.0B
EV/EBITDA32.7
Profit Mgn29.1%
ROE32.3%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta1.31
Dividend1.89%
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.37bullish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$75-75.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicChina (products shipped into)50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50% of our revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicChina (end customers headquartered)20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of our revenue in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Hagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President of Texas Instruments, announced intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. No successor named; no reason cited beyond planned retirement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.1
Pe
2.4
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.6
Peg Ratio
5.3
Forward P/E: 32.0xPEG: 1.44Expensive valuation

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
1.0
Obv
1.6
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $273.88Resistance $331.51

Price Targets

$256
$285
$325
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R-1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.9% upside)
! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $284.90. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $301.73. Engine's entry $284.90 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.44, quality 8.0/10, growth 7.8/10). Target $324.88 (+7.7%), stop $256.47 (−17.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $324.88 (+13.2% upside). Target $324.88 (+7.7%), stop $256.47 (−17.6%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $256.47.

What are the risks of investing in TXN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is TXN overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a P/E of 51.6 (forward 32.0). TrendMatrix value score: 2.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TXN?

45 analysts cover TXN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $292.

What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog (79% of 2025 revenue) and embedded processing (15%) semiconductors...

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog (79% of 2025 revenue) and embedded processing (15%) semiconductors sold to 100,000+ electronics manufacturers globally, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025. About 60% of revenue comes from customers headquartered outside the U.S.; products shipped into China represented approximately 50% of 2025 revenue.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.)
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