Texas Instruments is a high-quality analog semiconductor compounder with 32% return on equity, a wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats, and strong volume accumulation, but trades at a premium forward P/E of 33x while concentration in analog semiconductors shipped into China creates geopolitical risk.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Growth↑Improving
- China Concentration Geopolitical Risk↓Deteriorating
- Analog Moat High Roe→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2026
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Wait for pullback to $277.13. Price sits above the model's entry target of $277.13; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%).
Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to over 100,000 customers in electronics markets globally. The company generated $17.68 billion in revenue in 2025, with Analog accounting for 79% and Embedded... Read more
Wait for pullback to $277.13. Price sits above the model's entry target of $277.13; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.94, quality 8.7/10, growth 9.7/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Texas Instruments Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) After 1.2% Gain -- GF Value $236.73 vs Price $281.69 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Investors Heavily Search Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Here is What You Need to Know - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Texas Instruments Incorporated $TXN Stock Holdings Lifted by Amundi - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Texas Instruments: On A Tear As The Market Realizes The Potential Of 300mm Capacity - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Texas Instruments (TXN): On A Tear As The Market Realizes The Potential Of 300mm Capacity - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAnalog segment79%10-K Item 1: 'Sales of our Analog products generated about 79% of our revenue in 2025'
- HIGHGeographicChina (shipped into)50%10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50% of our revenue in 2025'
- LOWGeographicend customers headquartered in China20%10-K Item 1A: 'Revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of our revenue in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Rafael Lizardi retiring Aug 1, 2026 after 25 years; Board appointed Julie Knecht (current VP/Chief Accounting Officer since 2021) as successor effective same date. Retirement not related to financial results or reporting practices. No disagreement with financial practices cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOWHagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President, announced intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited beyond the announcement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $277.13. Price sits above the model's entry target of $277.13; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.94, quality 8.7/10, growth 9.7/10). Analyst target $303.18 reached (−2.1%), stop $263.85 (−17.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $303.18 reached (−2.1% from $309.83); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $303.18 reached (−2.1%), stop $263.85 (−17.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $263.85.
Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a P/E of 40.2 (forward 26.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
40 analysts cover TXN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $337.
What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to...
Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to over 100,000 customers in electronics markets globally. The company generated $17.68 billion in revenue in 2025, with Analog accounting for 79% and Embedded Processing for 15%, primarily sold through direct channels including TI.com.