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VIVTelefonica Brasil S.A.Sell5.2·$12.81+0.00%
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Telefonica Brasil S.A. (VIV) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.81 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its fixed line voice services portfolio includes local, domestic long-distance, and international long-distance calls; and mobile portfolio comprises voice and... Read more

$12.81+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#23 of 40 Telecom Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield7.35%(5y avg 4.80%)Payout60.31%
Stop $12.13Target $13.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$15.00+17.1%7 analysts
$13.05our TP
$12.81price
$15.00mean
$19

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.81 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$20.5B
EV/EBITDA2.6
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE9.2%
Rev Growth7.4%
Beta0.22
Dividend7.35%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$5-61.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
1.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Estimates down -26.9% (30d)Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 735.0%
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.37Resistance $13.66

Price Targets

$12
$13
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $12.81 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.13. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the VIV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.05 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $12.13. Stop-loss: $12.13.

What are the risks of investing in VIV?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Is VIV overvalued or undervalued?

Telefonica Brasil S.A. trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VIV?

19 analysts cover VIV with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Telefonica Brasil S.A. do?Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its...

Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its fixed line voice services portfolio includes local, domestic long-distance, and international long-distance calls; and mobile portfolio comprises voice and broadband internet access through 3G, 4G, 4.5G, and 5G, as well as value-added, prepaid plans with data sharing features, family plans, voice mail, caller identification, voice minutes in unlimited bundles to mobile and fixed-line phones, and digital services, and wireless roaming services. The company also offers data services, including broadband and mobile data services; fixed-line local services consist of activation, monthly subscription, public telephones and measured services. In addition, it provides pay TV services through IPTV technologies; network services, such as rental of facilities and other services; wholesale services, including interconnection services to users of other network providers; and digital services that include entertainment, cloud, and security and financial services. Further, the company offers multimedia communication services, which include audio, data, voice and other sounds, images, texts, and other information, as well as sells devices and accessories, such as smartphones, broadband USB modems, and other devices. Additionally, it provides telecommunications solutions and IT support to various industries, such as retail, manufacturing, services, financial institutions, government, etc; insurance services; and sale of wireless devices and consumer electronics. It markets and sells its solutions through Vivo stores, dealers, retail channels, distribution and digital channels, door-to-door sales, and outbound tele sales. The company was formerly known as Telecomunicações de São Paulo S.A. - TELESP and changed its name to Telefônica Brasil S.A. in October 2011. Telefônica Brasil S.A. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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