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VIVTelefonica Brasil S.A.Sell5.8·$11.42
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Telefonica Brasil trades at attractive valuation multiples with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 1.07 and strong financial-health indicators, but three consecutive earnings misses averaging minus 26% per quarter, combined with analyst estimates declining by 27%, point to deteriorating fundamental momentum that limits the investment case.

Thesis pillars

  • Valuation Support At Current Price↑Improving
  • Strong Financial Health Piotroski→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Streak And Estimate Cuts→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Telefonica Brasil S.A. (VIV) Stock Analysis

SellValueModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. At $11.42, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its fixed line voice services portfolio includes local, domestic long-distance, and international long-distance calls; and mobile portfolio comprises voice and... Read more

$11.42+10.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#8 of 41 Telecom Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield68.97%
IncomeYield8.72%(5y avg 4.17%)Payout120.03%at-risk
Stop $10.62Analyst target $12.61(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst consensus$14.49+26.9%8 analysts
$12.61Analyst target
$11.42price
$14.49mean
$19

Sell if holding. At $11.42, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202612d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.6
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$18.2B
EV/EBITDA1.5
Profit Mgn10.7%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.19
Dividend8.72%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV101%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.4
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
6.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 12 daysDividend: 8.7%
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
33 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.70Resistance $13.13

Price Targets

$11
$13
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $11.42, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.62. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VIV stock price target?

Analyst target: $12.61 (+10.4% upside). Prior stop was $10.62. Stop-loss: $10.62.

What are the risks of investing in VIV?

Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is VIV overvalued or undervalued?

Telefonica Brasil S.A. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VIV?

18 analysts cover VIV with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Telefonica Brasil S.A. do?Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its...

Telefônica Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mobile telecommunications company in Brazil. Its fixed line voice services portfolio includes local, domestic long-distance, and international long-distance calls; and mobile portfolio comprises voice and broadband internet access through 3G, 4G, 4.5G, and 5G, as well as value-added, prepaid plans with data sharing features, family plans, voice mail, caller identification, voice minutes in unlimited bundles to mobile and fixed-line phones, and digital services, and wireless roaming services. The company also offers data services, including broadband and mobile data services; fixed-line local services consist of activation, monthly subscription, public telephones and measured services. In addition, it provides pay TV services through IPTV technologies; network services, such as rental of facilities and other services; wholesale services, including interconnection services to users of other network providers; and digital services that include entertainment, cloud, and security and financial services. Further, the company offers multimedia communication services, which include audio, data, voice and other sounds, images, texts, and other information, as well as sells devices and accessories, such as smartphones, broadband USB modems, and other devices. Additionally, it provides telecommunications solutions and IT support to various industries, such as retail, manufacturing, services, financial institutions, government, etc; insurance services; and sale of wireless devices and consumer electronics. It markets and sells its solutions through Vivo stores, dealers, retail channels, distribution and digital channels, door-to-door sales, and outbound tele sales. The company was formerly known as Telecomunicações de São Paulo S.A. - TELESP and changed its name to Telefônica Brasil S.A. in October 2011. Telefônica Brasil S.A. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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