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TKCTurkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri ASSell5.7·$5.37+1.90%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Turkcell offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x with strong price momentum and rising on-balance volume, but below-average business quality and a 50% earnings miss rate over the last four quarters create a weak foundation for new investment.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Quality FloorStable
  • Attractive Value Low MultipleStable
  • Earnings Miss Rate RiskStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.37: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in establishing and operating a global system for mobile communications (GSM) network in Turkey, Belarus, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Germany, and the Netherlands. It operates through the... Read more

$5.37+16.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#16 of 42 Telecom Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield82.45%
IncomeYield4.10%(5y avg 4.82%)Payout22.14%sustainable
Stop $5.13Target $6.26(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$7.37+37.2%2 analysts
$6.26our TP
$5.37price
$7.37mean
$8

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.37: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.8
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE6.8%
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta0.66
Dividend4.10%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C5.00bearish

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.5
Roe
2.3
Roa
2.8
Net Margin
3.6
Moat
4.5
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.90Resistance $5.50

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TKC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.37: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 1.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Prior stop was $5.13. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TKC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.26 (+16.6% upside). Prior stop was $5.13. Stop-loss: $5.13.

What are the risks of investing in TKC?

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is TKC overvalued or undervalued?

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TKC?

15 analysts cover TKC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS do?Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in establishing and operating a global...

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in establishing and operating a global system for mobile communications (GSM) network in Turkey, Belarus, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Germany, and the Netherlands. It operates through the Turkcell Turkiye, Turkcell International, and Techfin segments. The company is involved in information technology, value added GSM, and entertainment investment, as well as research and development, digital and insurance agency, property investments, electricity energy trade, and wholesale and retail electricity sales activities. It also provides telecommunications, television, and content; digitalization; sales, delivery, and digital sales; consumer financing; cloud solutions; online radio, television, and on-demand streaming; telecommunications infrastructure; electronic payment; and develop software products and services. In addition, the company offers customer relations and human resources management; directory assistance; payment services and e-money; internet search engine and browser; venture capital investment fund; meal coupons and cards; data processing; data center and cloud; programming and technical support; and digital education services. Further, it provides training software developers. Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

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