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TDToronto Dominion Bank (The)Hold5.1·$117.33+0.93%
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Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $117.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away).

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and... Read more

$117.33-1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#18 of 19 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.77%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout50.00%sustainable
Stop $113.41Target $115.59(resistance)A.R:R -2.2:1
Analyst target$110.28-6.0%3 analysts
$115.59our TP
$117.33price
$110.28mean
$97
$120

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $117.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.5% away)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.2
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$193.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth-31.5%
Beta0.88
Dividend2.77%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C5.82bearish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$110-6.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.6
Value Rank
2.9

Revenue shrinking — -31.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
7.1
Declining revenue: -32%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $106.77Resistance $117.95

Price Targets

$113
$116
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $117.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $115.59 (-1.5%), stop $113.41 (−3.5%), A.R:R -2.2:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $115.59 (-1.5% upside). Target $115.59 (-1.5%), stop $113.41 (−3.5%), A.R:R -2.2:1. Stop-loss: $113.41.

What are the risks of investing in TD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.5% away); Weak growth.

Is TD overvalued or undervalued?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) trades at a P/E of 19.2 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TD?

23 analysts cover TD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Toronto Dominion Bank (The) do?The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada,...

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: C (Citigroup, Inc.) · BAC (Bank of America Corporation) · BK (The Bank of New York Mellon Cor) · CM (Canadian Imperial Bank of Comme) · UBS (UBS Group AG Registered)
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