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TDToronto Dominion Bank (The)Sell5.1·$116.99-2.84%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Toronto-Dominion Bank offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.59, with three of four recent earnings beats and rising earnings estimates, but revenue declined 32% year-over-year and the analyst target has been exceeded, leaving little room for near-term price appreciation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings BeatImproving
  • Revenue Decline HeadwindDeteriorating
  • Recent Earnings MomentumStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.99 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and... Read more

$116.99-18.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#18 of 19 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.64%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout50.00%sustainable
Stop $112.89Target $122.37(resistance)A.R:R -3.6:1
Analyst target$112.64-3.7%2 analysts
$122.37our TP
$116.99price
$112.64mean
$97
$129

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.99 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.8
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$198.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth-31.5%
Beta0.88
Dividend2.64%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.78bearish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$110-6.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.9
Value Rank
2.9

Revenue shrinking — -31.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
7.0
Declining revenue: -32%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
2.1
Obv
5.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -3.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $116.38Resistance $124.87

Price Targets

$113
$122
A.Upside-18.2%
A.R:R-3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.2% upside)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $116.99 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $112.89. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $122.37 (-18.2% upside). Prior stop was $112.89. Stop-loss: $112.89.

What are the risks of investing in TD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is TD overvalued or undervalued?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) trades at a P/E of 19.8 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TD?

23 analysts cover TD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Toronto Dominion Bank (The) do?The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada,...

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) · BAC (Bank of America Corporation) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · WFC (Wells Fargo & Company) · RY (Royal Bank Of Canada)
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