TriCo Bancshares has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 7%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.9 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.40, and maintains 31% net margins with a Piotroski health score of 8 out of 9 — though the stock is trading near its analyst target and within 2.8% of its 52-week high.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Track Record→Stable
- Value Growth Combination↓Deteriorating
- Strong Margin And Financial Health→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (67.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateralized loans (92.8%).
TriCo Bancshares is the holding company for Tri Counties Bank, a California-chartered commercial bank with $9.8 billion in total assets that offers consumer, small business, and commercial banking through a network of branches across California. The bank's loan book is dominated... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (67.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateralized loans (92.8%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About TriCo Bancshares
About TriCo Bancshares
Tri Counties Bank, the wholly-owned subsidiary of TriCo Bancshares, held $9.8 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, with commercial real estate loans of $4.6 billion making up approximately 67.6% of its total loan portfolio. The bank operates a network of stand-alone and in-store branches concentrated in California, supplemented by a shared nationwide network of more than 40,000 surcharge-free ATMs, and is supervised by the Federal Reserve, the California Department of Financial Protection & Innovation, and the FDIC. TriCo's total loan book breaks down as 68.3% commercial real estate, 18.5% consumer, 6.5% commercial and industrial, and 4.2% real estate construction.
TriCo earns net interest income by taking demand, savings, and time deposits and lending to individuals and businesses across diverse industries, including manufacturing, real estate development, retail, agriculture, and professional services, while adding fee income through treasury management services and a brokerage and wealth-management arrangement with Raymond James Financial Services. The bank maintained $2.0 billion, about 21.1% of assets, in investment securities at year-end 2025, exposing common equity to unrealized mark-to-market swings as interest rates move. Deposits are broadly sourced from individuals and business customers rather than a concentrated few: the 10-K states no single depositor or group provides a material portion of total deposits. Management describes underwriting and credit-monitoring procedures, including an allowance for credit losses sized under the CECL expected-loss framework, as its primary tool for managing the credit risk embedded in a loan book that is nearly 93% collateralized by real estate.
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TriCo's risk profile is defined less by any single counterparty than by geographic and asset-class concentration: approximately 92.8% of the bank's loan portfolio by book value is collateralized by real estate, and substantially all of that collateral sits in California, so a downturn in state home prices or commercial property values would hit collateral coverage broadly rather than in one pocket of the book. Layered on top, commercial real estate loans specifically total $4.6 billion, 67.6% of the loan portfolio, a segment the 10-K flags as carrying more default risk than other loan types because repayment often hinges on a single property's operating income and larger loan balances concentrated with fewer borrowers. TriCo's $9.8 billion in total assets keeps it just under the $10 billion threshold that would subject it to direct CFPB examination rather than review by its primary federal banking regulator.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From TriCo Bancshares's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — TriCo Bancshares
Latest news
- NEWS Trico Bancshares (TCBK) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS BRODSKY & SMITH SHAREHOLDER UPDATE: Notifying Investors of the Following Investigations: TriCo Bancshares (Nasdaq – TCBK — Supply Chain Digital negative
- NEWS TriCo Bancshares to Merge With First Hawaiian in All-Stock Deal; Holders to Receive 2.095 FHI Shares - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ:TCBK) Downgraded to Equal Weight Rating by Stephens - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Hsbc Holdings PLC Invests $815,000 in TriCo Bancshares $TCBK - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans68%10-K Item 1A: 'we had approximately $4.6 billion of commercial real estate loans outstanding, which represented approximately 67.6% of our total loan portfolio'
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate collateralized loans93%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 92.8% of the book value of our loan portfolio consisted of loans collateralized by various types of real estate'
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our real estate collateral is located in California'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
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Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $53.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (67.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateralized loans (92.8%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $49.16 reached (−7.3%), stop $50.94 (−4.1%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $49.16 reached (−7.3% from $53.02); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $49.16 reached (−7.3%), stop $50.94 (−4.1%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $50.94.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (67.6%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate collateralized loans (92.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
TriCo Bancshares trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
10 analysts cover TCBK with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $58.
What does TriCo Bancshares do?TriCo Bancshares is the holding company for Tri Counties Bank, a California-chartered commercial bank with $9.8 billion...
TriCo Bancshares is the holding company for Tri Counties Bank, a California-chartered commercial bank with $9.8 billion in total assets that offers consumer, small business, and commercial banking through a network of branches across California. The bank's loan book is dominated by commercial real estate, at $4.6 billion (67.6% of total loans), and 92.8% of its loan portfolio by book value is collateralized by real estate, nearly all of it located in California. TriCo is regulated by the Federal Reserve, the California DFPI, and the FDIC, and remains just under the $10 billion asset threshold