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TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.Hold6.2·$101.51+1.15%
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Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $101.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Texas Capital Bancshares is a Texas-headquartered financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (a Texas state-chartered Federal Reserve member bank) and Texas Capital Securities, serving commercial businesses, entrepreneurs, and professionals in Austin, Dallas,... Read more

$101.51-0.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#34 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.79%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $96.67Target $100.93(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$107.69+6.1%13 analysts
$100.93our TP
$101.51price
$107.69mean
$96
$116

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $101.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.7
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$4.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.7%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth16.9%
Beta0.68
Dividend0.79%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C4.00bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$100-1.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Although more than 50% of the Company's loan exposure is outside of Texas and more than 50% of its deposits are sourced outside of Texas, the Texas concentration remains significant compared to peer banks.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02LOW
    John Cummings (Managing Director and Chief Administrative Officer) named Chief Operating Officer effective April 16, 2026. Internal promotion; no mention of replacement for CAO role. No reason cited for the change.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $93.87Resistance $102.99

Price Targets

$97
$101
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TCBI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $101.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $100.93 (-0.6%), stop $96.67 (−5.0%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TCBI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $100.93 (-0.6% upside). Target $100.93 (-0.6%), stop $96.67 (−5.0%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $96.67.

What are the risks of investing in TCBI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is TCBI overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.7 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TCBI?

19 analysts cover TCBI with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $108.

What does Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. do?Texas Capital Bancshares is a Texas-headquartered financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (a Texas...

Texas Capital Bancshares is a Texas-headquartered financial services firm operating through Texas Capital Bank (a Texas state-chartered Federal Reserve member bank) and Texas Capital Securities, serving commercial businesses, entrepreneurs, and professionals in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio. As of December 31, 2025, the Company had 1,785 employees with majority Texas-based operations.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation)
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