1st Source Corporation has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 11%, is in a golden cross breakout above all moving averages, and carries best-in-class 38% net margins among regional bank peers — but the stock has already surpassed its analyst price target with negative asymmetry and offers minimal near-term upside potential.
Thesis pillars
- Best In Class Margins Peer Rank↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Golden Cross Strong Momentum↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $87.38, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).
1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company serving individuals and businesses primarily through 78 banking centers in 19 Indiana and Michigan counties, with a nationwide Specialty Finance Group financing construction equipment, aircraft, and fleet vehicles. The... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $87.38, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About 1st Source Corporation
About 1st Source Corporation
1st Source Corporation reported $9.06 billion in total assets, $7.05 billion in loans and leases, and $7.23 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating through 1st Source Bank's 78 banking centers in 19 Indiana and Michigan counties plus Sarasota County, Florida. The holding company is regulated by the Indiana Department of Financial Institutions, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the FDIC, and employs approximately 1,190 full-time equivalent colleagues.
1st Source derives revenue from two primary activities: traditional commercial and consumer banking in northern Indiana and Michigan, and nationwide Specialty Finance Group lending across four equipment categories. Commercial banking serves privately owned businesses with industrial and commercial real estate loans, equipment financing, treasury management, and retirement planning. The Specialty Finance Group—operating through subsidiaries including SFG Aircraft, Michigan Transportation Finance Corporation, and SFG Equipment Leasing Corporation I from 15 nationwide locations—finances construction equipment (relationships up to $40 million), aircraft including selective international transactions in Mexico and Brazil (up to $30 million), auto and light truck fleet vehicles, and medium and heavy duty trucks. Trust and wealth advisory services add fee income from individual, estate, corporate, and not-for-profit clients. Competition comes from regional affiliates of large bank holding companies, credit unions, securities firms, and insurance companies; the company relies on community-based, personalized service rooted in northern Indiana since 1863.
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The company's commercial loan book, deposit base, and consumer mortgage portfolio concentrate in 19 Indiana and Michigan counties—a geography directly tied to the construction, transportation, and aviation industries that drive Specialty Finance Group credit quality. The 10-K explicitly states that the Specialty Finance lending portfolio is 'concentrated in certain equipment types,' and that construction and transportation clients could be adversely affected by sudden fuel cost changes and cyclical downturns—risks that would strike the geographic and equipment concentrations simultaneously. Aircraft relationships in Mexico and Brazil introduce currency risk, as dollar-denominated debts may face elevated delinquency during periods of peso or real depreciation.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From 1st Source Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — 1st Source Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS 1st Source Corporation (NASDAQ:SRCE) Short Interest Up 24.3% in April - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS 1st Source Bank’s Record Year Put A Small Regional Lender On Investors’ Maps - Finimize — Finimize positive
- NEWS Can 1st Source (NASDAQ:SRCE) Extend Its Record Profit Run Past USD 47.5 Million in Third-Quarter Earnings? - kalkine.ca — kalkine.ca positive
- NEWS Earnings To Watch: 1st Source Corp (SRCE) Q3 2026 -- GF Value Sees 13% Downside - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS 1st Source (SRCE) Q3 Earnings: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:26Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioSpecialty Finance equipment types10-K Item 1: 'our Specialty Finance lending portfolio is concentrated in certain equipment types'
- MEDIUMGeographicIndiana and Michigan10-K Item 1: 'our 78 banking center locations in 19 counties in Indiana and Michigan'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved amendments to the 1982 Executive Incentive Plan, Strategic Deployment Incentive Plan, and Restricted Stock Award Plan at the April 23, 2026 annual meeting. No officer departures; compensatory arrangement changes only.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $87.38, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $80.75 reached (−7.6%), stop $83.44 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $80.75 reached (−7.6% from $87.38); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $80.75 reached (−7.6%), stop $83.44 (−4.7%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $83.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).
1st Source Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
9 analysts cover SRCE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $95.
What does 1st Source Corporation do?1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company serving individuals and businesses primarily through 78...
1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company serving individuals and businesses primarily through 78 banking centers in 19 Indiana and Michigan counties, with a nationwide Specialty Finance Group financing construction equipment, aircraft, and fleet vehicles. The Bank had $9.06 billion in total assets, $7.05 billion in loans and leases, and $7.23 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025.