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SGISomnigroup International Inc.Sell5.9·$67.81-0.29%
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Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $67.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Somnigroup International owns Tempur Sealy (Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster brands) and Mattress Firm (2,100+ U.S. stores), plus Dreams in the U.K., operating 2,800+ retail stores globally after completing the $5.1B Mattress Firm acquisition in Feb 2025. Revenue flows... Read more

$67.81+24.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 11 Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.46%
IncomeYield1.00%(5y avg 0.93%)Payout24.80%sustainable
Stop $63.06Target $84.61(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$97.25+43.4%8 analysts
$84.61our TP
$67.81price
$97.25mean
$115

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $67.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 59d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202659d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.2
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$14.3B
EV/EBITDA16.3
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE17.7%
Rev Growth12.3%
Beta1.21
Dividend1.00%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.08bearish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 59d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $60.23Resistance $73.22

Price Targets

$63
$85
A.Upside+24.8%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (59d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $67.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $63.06. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

What is the SGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $84.61 (+24.8% upside). Prior stop was $63.06. Stop-loss: $63.06.

What are the risks of investing in SGI?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Is SGI overvalued or undervalued?

Somnigroup International Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.2 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGI?

14 analysts cover SGI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $97.

What does Somnigroup International Inc. do?Somnigroup International owns Tempur Sealy (Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster brands) and Mattress Firm (2,100+...

Somnigroup International owns Tempur Sealy (Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster brands) and Mattress Firm (2,100+ U.S. stores), plus Dreams in the U.K., operating 2,800+ retail stores globally after completing the $5.1B Mattress Firm acquisition in Feb 2025. Revenue flows through Mattress Firm, Tempur Sealy North America, and Tempur Sealy International segments; direct channel was 63.5% of net sales in 2025.

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