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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Rivian is an American EV manufacturer making the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and Electric Delivery Vans at its Normal, Illinois factory. It sells directly to consumers and commercial customers. A Joint Venture with Volkswagen Group develops software architecture for multiple VW brands.

$15.19+7.3% A.UpsideScore 3.8/10#15 of 16 Auto Manufacturers
Stop $14.16Target $16.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$18.16+19.6%25 analysts
$16.34our TP
$15.19price
$18.16mean
$9
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: affiliate of principal stockholder
Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or limited-source suppliers
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-8.4
Mkt Cap$20.7B
EV/EBITDA-7.0
Profit Mgn-67.7%
ROE-65.0%
Rev Growth-25.8%
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C1.06bearish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$5-67.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomeraffiliate of principal stockholder
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our automotive revenues has been from one customer that is an affiliate of one of our principal stockholders.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle- or limited-source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our products contain thousands of raw materials and product components that we purchase from hundreds of mostly single- or limited-source suppliers, for which no immediate or readily available alternative supplier exists.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -25.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -26%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.0
Cash-burning: FCF -15% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
1.2
Value Rank
2.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.3
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume
6.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.43Resistance $18.07

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+7.6%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIVN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.19: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $14.16. Score 3.8/10, high confidence.

What is the RIVN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.34 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $14.16. Stop-loss: $14.16.

What are the risks of investing in RIVN?

Concentration risk — Customer: affiliate of principal stockholder; Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or limited-source suppliers; Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is RIVN overvalued or undervalued?

Rivian Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIVN?

36 analysts cover RIVN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Rivian Automotive, Inc. do?Rivian is an American EV manufacturer making the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and Electric Delivery Vans at its Normal,...

Rivian is an American EV manufacturer making the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and Electric Delivery Vans at its Normal, Illinois factory. It sells directly to consumers and commercial customers. A Joint Venture with Volkswagen Group develops software architecture for multiple VW brands.

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