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Maximus, Inc. (MMS) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Business Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $65.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Maximus is a tech-enabled services provider to U.S. federal and state/local government agencies, delivering health insurance eligibility, clinical services, and IT modernization across three segments (U.S. Federal Services 56% of FY2025 revenue, U.S. Services, and Outside the... Read more

$65.34+43.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 21 Specialty Business Services
Stop $61.59Target $93.50(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 7.4:1
Analyst target$110.00+68.4%2 analysts
$93.50our TP
$65.34price
$110.00mean
$125

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $65.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 33%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA7.3
Profit Mgn6.9%
ROE22.1%
Rev Growth-4.1%
Beta0.63
Dividend2.01%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C3.67bearish
IV67%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. federal government55%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our total revenue was derived from the U.S. federal government'
  • MEDIUMCustomersingle federal agency
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately one-fifth of our revenue came from contracts with a single federal agency'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
6.4
Value Rank
8.1
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 7.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $61.56Resistance $70.81

Price Targets

$62
$94
A.Upside+43.1%
A.R:R7.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MMS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $65.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $93.50 (+43.1%), stop $61.59 (−6.1%), A.R:R 7.4:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $93.50 (+43.1% upside). Target $93.50 (+43.1%), stop $61.59 (−6.1%), A.R:R 7.4:1. Stop-loss: $61.59.

What are the risks of investing in MMS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. federal government (55.0%); Earnings in 5 days (event risk); Below 200-day MA.

Is MMS overvalued or undervalued?

Maximus, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MMS?

6 analysts cover MMS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $110.

What does Maximus, Inc. do?Maximus is a tech-enabled services provider to U.S. federal and state/local government agencies, delivering health...

Maximus is a tech-enabled services provider to U.S. federal and state/local government agencies, delivering health insurance eligibility, clinical services, and IT modernization across three segments (U.S. Federal Services 56% of FY2025 revenue, U.S. Services, and Outside the U.S.). Revenue is almost entirely government-sourced; ~55% federal, ~33% state/local in FY2025.

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