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KRCKilroy Realty CorporationSell4.7·$37.94-1.68%
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Kilroy Realty Corporation (KRC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Office

Sell if holding. At $37.94, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from technology industry tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California.

Kilroy Realty is a self-administered REIT owning, developing, and managing premier office and life science properties primarily in California, with additional assets in Seattle and Austin. Its stabilized portfolio of 121 properties totaling 16.3M sqft was 81.6% occupied;... Read more

$37.94+0.1% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#10 of 14 REIT - Office
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield7.61%
IncomeYield5.60%(5y avg 5.36%)Payout118.03%
Stop $36.44Target $38.44(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$36.64-3.4%14 analysts
$38.44our TP
$37.94price
$36.64mean
$28
$51

Sell if holding. At $37.94, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from technology industry tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and reit tenant cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from technology industry tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Concentration risk — Tenant: technology industry tenants (51.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.1
P/E (Fwd)77.2
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn19.6%
ROE4.4%
Rev Growth-0.3%
Beta1.16
Dividend5.60%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV89%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'All of our properties are located in California, the Seattle, Washington Metropolitan Area, and the Austin, Texas Metropolitan Area and we may therefore be susceptible to adverse economic conditions'
  • HIGHTenanttechnology industry tenants51%
    10-K Item 1A: '51% of our tenants operated in the technology industry, 19% in the life science and health care industries'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Gary Stevenson as Chair (replacing Edward Brennan who remains a director) and appointed two new independent directors: Cornelia Marakovits and David Kieske, effective immediately. Board expanded from 7 to 9 members.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.4
Declining revenue: -0%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.3
52w Position
7.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEREIT TENANT CLIFF HARD BLOCKDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
80 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.94Resistance $39.22

Price Targets

$36
$38
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! REIT_TENANT_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $37.94, A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from technology industry tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Prior stop was $36.44. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the KRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.44 (+0.1% upside). Prior stop was $36.44. Stop-loss: $36.44.

What are the risks of investing in KRC?

REIT tenant concentration cliff: 51% of NOI from technology industry tenants (≥40% threshold). Single-tenant churn risk dominates spot FFO.; Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Tenant: technology industry tenants (51.0%).

Is KRC overvalued or undervalued?

Kilroy Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.1 (forward 77.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KRC?

23 analysts cover KRC with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Kilroy Realty Corporation do?Kilroy Realty is a self-administered REIT owning, developing, and managing premier office and life science properties...

Kilroy Realty is a self-administered REIT owning, developing, and managing premier office and life science properties primarily in California, with additional assets in Seattle and Austin. Its stabilized portfolio of 121 properties totaling 16.3M sqft was 81.6% occupied; approximately 98.3% of revenues are derived from rental income.

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