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IONQIonQ, Inc.Sell4.4·$56.45-10.11%
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IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Computer Hardware

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.45: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and a broader quantum platform spanning computing, networking, sensing, and security, selling hardware and QCaaS access via AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud. The company is early-stage with net losses of $510.4M in 2025 and... Read more

$56.45+3.8% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#13 of 14 Computer Hardware
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-0.39%
Stop $52.72Target $58.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$67.64+19.8%13 analysts
$58.84our TP
$56.45price
$67.64mean
$45
$100

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.45: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — IonQ, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: few customers
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.5%), High leverage (D/E 4.6), Material insider selling (116 sells, 0.40% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)146.0
P/E (Fwd)-60.2
Mkt Cap$23.4B
EV/EBITDA-32.4
Profit Mgn174.9%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth754.7%
Beta3.18
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV114%elevated
Max Pain$25-55.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerfew customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Much of our revenue is concentrated in a few customers, and if we lose any of these customers through contract terminations, acquisitions, or other means, our revenue may decrease substantially.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    William F. Scannell, age 63, elected to Board as Class II director effective March 20, 2026, filling newly added seat. Appointed to Compensation Committee. No prior arrangement for selection; no material interest in any transaction.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Analyst Target
5.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
3.2
Roe
3.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Moat
6.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -28% FCF/NI

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $45.51Resistance $73.65

Price Targets

$53
$59
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.5%), High leverage (D/E 4.6), Material insider selling (116 sells, 0.40% of cap)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IONQ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.45: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $52.72. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IONQ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.84 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $52.72. Stop-loss: $52.72.

What are the risks of investing in IONQ?

Concentration risk — Customer: few customers; Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Margin compression (op margin 1.5%), High leverage (D/E 4.6), Material insider selling (116 sells, 0.40% of cap).

Is IONQ overvalued or undervalued?

IonQ, Inc. trades at a P/E of 146.0 (forward -60.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IONQ?

19 analysts cover IONQ with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $68.

What does IonQ, Inc. do?IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and a broader quantum platform spanning computing, networking, sensing, and...

IonQ develops trapped-ion quantum computers and a broader quantum platform spanning computing, networking, sensing, and security, selling hardware and QCaaS access via AWS Braket, Azure Quantum, and Google Cloud. The company is early-stage with net losses of $510.4M in 2025 and accumulated deficit of $1,194.1M.

Related stocks: WDC (Western Digital Corporation) · ANET (Arista Networks, Inc.) · STX (Seagate Technology Holdings PLC) · RGTI (Rigetti Computing, Inc.) · SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.)
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