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GELGenesis Energy, L.P.Sell5.4·$15.47-1.02%
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Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. At $15.47, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating across three segments: offshore pipeline transportation (deepwater Gulf of Mexico), soda ash mining and marketing (Westvaco operations), and marine transportation (inland and offshore barges). It earns fee-based and commodity-sensitive... Read more

$15.47+6.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#28 of 42 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.98%
IncomeYield4.61%(5y avg 5.13%)Payout176.47%at-risk
Stop $14.47Target $16.43(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$19.33+25.0%3 analysts
$16.43our TP
$15.47price
$19.33mean
$20

Sell if holding. At $15.47, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Genesis Energy, L.P.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.2%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.9): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)20.8
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn2.1%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth12.1%
Beta0.59
Dividend4.61%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV32%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Genesis Energy terminated its Seventh Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, replaced in its entirety by an Eighth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement providing a $1.1B revolving credit facility maturing March 9, 2029.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Macd
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spot8K FLAG 1.02Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.92Resistance $16.55

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+6.2%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $15.47, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.47. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.43 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $14.47. Stop-loss: $14.47.

What are the risks of investing in GEL?

Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 5.9): -1.5.

Is GEL overvalued or undervalued?

Genesis Energy, L.P. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 20.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GEL?

7 analysts cover GEL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Genesis Energy, L.P. do?Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating across three segments: offshore pipeline transportation (deepwater Gulf of...

Genesis Energy is a midstream MLP operating across three segments: offshore pipeline transportation (deepwater Gulf of Mexico), soda ash mining and marketing (Westvaco operations), and marine transportation (inland and offshore barges). It earns fee-based and commodity-sensitive revenues from crude oil, natural gas, and chemical logistics.

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