The bank screens well on value and quality — a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.4x, 27% net margins, and an 8-out-of-9 Piotroski financial health score — with technically bullish price momentum, but having risen to within approximately 5% of the analyst consensus price target, the remaining upside does not clear the risk-to-reward threshold required to add new capital; the appropriate posture is to hold and wait for a target revision or a price correction.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margins Financial Health→Stable
- Attractive Forward Valuation→Stable
- Near Target Limited Upside↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. is an Illinois-based financial holding company operating First Mid Bank & Trust across Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Texas, alongside insurance brokerage through First Mid Insurance Group and wealth management, trust, and farm management services.... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About First Mid Bancshares, Inc.
About First Mid Bancshares, Inc.
First Mid Bancshares held $4.1 billion in loans secured by commercial, agricultural, and residential real estate as of December 31, 2025, with commercial real estate loans alone growing to $2.6 billion from $1.7 billion at year-end 2021. Approximately 74% of the company's total revenue came from lending activities in fiscal 2025, spanning branches across Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Texas following the 2023 merger with Blackhawk Bancorp. The bank's legal lending limit stood at $136.5 million at December 31, 2025.
First Mid earns the large majority of its revenue from net interest income on commercial, agricultural, and residential real estate loans, complemented by fee income from wealth management -- including farm management, trust, and brokerage services -- and from property-casualty, senior, and group medical insurance brokerage. Underwriting authority scales with loan size: the Senior Loan Committee approves loans between $10 million and $30 million, while the board of directors must approve anything larger, up to the bank's $136.5 million legal lending limit. Credit quality has run favorably against peers, with average net charge-offs of $3.1 million (0.06% of total loans) over the past five years and nonperforming loans of $31.9 million (0.53% of total loans) at December 31, 2025. Net interest margin rose to 3.70% in 2025 from 3.34% in 2024 on improved loan pricing and lower funding costs.
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Beyond the headline real estate exposure, First Mid's loan book carries industry-level concentration risk: total loan balances to each of four separate industries exceeded 25% of total risk-based capital as of December 31, 2025, a threshold the bank flags as significant enough that a downturn in any one of those industries -- citing agricultural commodity prices as one example -- could materially increase credit losses. The company also completed the Blackhawk Bancorp merger in August 2023 and continues to pursue acquisitions as a growth strategy, adding integration risk on top of concentrated credit exposure.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — First Mid Bancshares, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Rhino Investment Partners Inc Has $6.49 Million Holdings in First Mid Bancshares, Inc. $FMBH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS First Mid Bancshares, Inc. Revenue Breakdown – NASDAQ:FMBH - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS First Mid Bancshares, Inc. Revenue Breakdown – NASDAQ:FMBH - tradingview.com — tradingview.com neutral
- NEWS First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) Announces Leadership Changes - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Is First Mid Bancshares (FMBH) Overvalued After Q1 2026 Earnings - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioloan balances by industry10-K Item 1A: 'the Company’s total loan balances by industry exceeded 25% of total risk-based capital for each of four industries as of December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02MEDIUMPlanned CEO succession announced: Matthew K. Smith (currently President) becomes CEO and President effective July 1, 2026 and joins the Board; Joseph R. Dively transitions from CEO to Executive Chair and remains Chairman of the Board. Smith also entered a new employment agreement effective July 1, 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-15Item 1.01LOWOn April 10, 2026, the company entered a $15.0 million revolving line of credit and a $20.0 million term loan (maturing April 2029) with Bankers' Bank, with initial rates of approximately 6.00% and 6.402%, respectively; routine financing, no default or distress cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $50.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $49.03 reached (−2.9%), stop $48.32 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $49.03 reached (−2.9% from $50.52); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $49.03 reached (−2.9%), stop $48.32 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $48.32.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.5 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover FMBH with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $56.
What does First Mid Bancshares, Inc. do?First Mid Bancshares, Inc. is an Illinois-based financial holding company operating First Mid Bank & Trust across...
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. is an Illinois-based financial holding company operating First Mid Bank & Trust across Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Texas, alongside insurance brokerage through First Mid Insurance Group and wealth management, trust, and farm management services. The bank held $4.1 billion in loans secured by commercial, agricultural, and residential real estate as of December 31, 2025, with approximately 74% of total revenue derived from lending activities in fiscal 2025, and total commercial real estate loans growing from $1.7 billion in 2021 to $2.6 billion in 2025 following