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FCFFirstSell5.5·$19.18+0.37%
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First (FCF) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.18 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away).

First Commonwealth Financial is a Pennsylvania-based bank holding company with approximately $12 billion in assets, providing commercial and retail banking through branches in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Revenue comes from net interest income and fee-based services; commercial real... Read more

$19.18-1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#107 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.92%(5y avg 3.30%)Payout35.53%sustainable
Stop $18.46Target $18.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$20.83+8.6%6 analysts
$18.98our TP
$19.18price
$20.83mean
$21

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.18 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.0% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.7%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.75
Dividend2.92%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$3-87.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate mortgage loans comprised approximately 33% of our loan portfolio.'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliouninsured deposits29%
    10-K Item 1: 'uninsured deposits totaled 29% of the total deposit portfolio.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.96Resistance $19.37

Price Targets

$18
$19
A.Upside-1.0%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.5% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.18 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $18.46. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FCF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.98 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $18.46. Stop-loss: $18.46.

What are the risks of investing in FCF?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.0% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is FCF overvalued or undervalued?

First trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FCF?

10 analysts cover FCF with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $21.

What does First do?First Commonwealth Financial is a Pennsylvania-based bank holding company with approximately $12 billion in assets,...

First Commonwealth Financial is a Pennsylvania-based bank holding company with approximately $12 billion in assets, providing commercial and retail banking through branches in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Revenue comes from net interest income and fee-based services; commercial real estate comprised ~33% of the loan portfolio and uninsured deposits totaled 29% of total deposits.

Related stocks: GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · NIC (Nicolet Bankshares Inc.) · WSBC (WesBanco, Inc.)
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