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FBKFB Financial CorporationHold6.3·$55.00+1.63%
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FB Financial Corporation (FBK) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%).

FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets, offering commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management across Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky. Revenue comes from net interest income and... Read more

$55.00+1.9% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#32 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.55%(5y avg 1.42%)Payout28.78%sustainable
Stop $52.72Target $56.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$64.43+17.1%7 analysts
$56.05our TP
$55.00price
$64.43mean
$67

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 13, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.0
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.2%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth31.9%
Beta0.96
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV78%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicTennessee62%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 55% of our loans and approximately 62% of our deposits were made to borrowers or received from depositors who live and/or primarily conduct business in Tennessee.'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate40%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate (both owner-occupied and non-owner occupied) - 40%; commercial and industrial - 18%; and construction - 10%.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
7.8
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.80Resistance $55.13

Price Targets

$53
$56
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-13 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FBK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $56.05 (+1.9%), stop $52.72 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FBK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.05 (+1.9% upside). Target $56.05 (+1.9%), stop $52.72 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $52.72.

What are the risks of investing in FBK?

Single-region cliff: 62% exposure to Tennessee (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Tennessee (62.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FBK overvalued or undervalued?

FB Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.0 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FBK?

11 analysts cover FBK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $64.

What does FB Financial Corporation do?FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets,...

FB Financial is a Tennessee-based bank holding company operating FirstBank with approximately $13 billion in assets, offering commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management across Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky. Revenue comes from net interest income and noninterest income; Tennessee accounts for ~62% of deposits and ~55% of loans.

Related stocks: INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation)
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