Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the COGT stock price target?

Take-profit $47.13 (+30.4% upside). Prior stop was $33.77.

Q: What are the risks of investing in COGT?

Concentration risk — Product: bezuclastinib program; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.1), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.25% of cap); Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.1), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.25% of cap).

Q: Is COGT overvalued or undervalued?

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -52.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about COGT?

19 analysts cover COGT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $54.

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.20: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

$36.20+30.4% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#109 of 158 Biotechnology

Stop $33.77Target $47.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.6:1

Analyst target$54.17+49.6%12 analysts

$47.13our TP

$36.20price

$54.17mean

$72

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: bezuclastinib program

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.1), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.25% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—

P/E (Fwd)-52.0

Mkt Cap$6.1B

EV/EBITDA-15.7

Profit Mgn0.0%

ROE-73.7%

Rev Growth—

Beta0.47

DividendNone

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.40bearish

IV69%elevated

Max Pain$6-83.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductbezuclastinib program
10-K Item 1A: 'Our business is highly dependent on the success of our bezuclastinib program and our ability to discover and develop additional product candidates.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value9.015%1.35

Quality1.615%0.24

Growth5.015%0.75

Momentum2.610%0.26

Sentiment7.810%0.78

Insider Activity3.510%0.35

Peer Rank2.610%0.26

Technical Setup5.95%0.30

Risk Profile5.05%0.25

Catalyst5.15%0.26

Overall (Σ contributions)4.79

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe

0.0

Roa

0.0

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Net Margin

0.0

Fcf Quality

0.0

Piotroski F

4.4

Current Ratio

5.0

Moat

5.0

Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Macd

2.7

Ma Position

4.0

Rsi

5.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.3

Value Rank

5.0

Growth Rank

5.0

GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 4.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate

RSI

46 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.26Resistance $37.99

Price Targets

$34

$47

A.Upside+30.2%

A.R:R4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.1), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.25% of cap)

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is COGT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $36.20: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $33.77. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the COGT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.13 (+30.4% upside). Prior stop was $33.77. Stop-loss: $33.77.

What are the risks of investing in COGT?

Concentration risk — Product: bezuclastinib program; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.1), Material insider selling (4 sells, 0.25% of cap).

Is COGT overvalued or undervalued?

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -52.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about COGT?

19 analysts cover COGT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Cogent Biosciences, Inc. do?Cogent Biosciences is a clinical-stage biotech developing precision therapies for genetically defined diseases, with...

Cogent Biosciences is a clinical-stage biotech developing precision therapies for genetically defined diseases, with bezuclastinib (CGT9486) as its lead candidate — a highly selective KIT D816V inhibitor in late-stage trials for Systemic Mastocytosis and GIST. NDAs submitted or planned for NonAdvSM, GIST, and AdvSM with commercial launch expected in the U.S. in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approval.