Elevance Health has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 11%, but the business scores below the minimum quality threshold with no identified competitive moat and a 0.72-to-1 unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, making the current setup unattractive for new capital with only 4.1% headroom remaining to the price target.
Thesis pillars
- Recent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Quality Below Investment Floor↑Improving
- Momentum Weakness Volume Distribution↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2026
Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. At $414.41, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. At $414.41, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Elevance Health, Inc.
About Elevance Health, Inc.
Elevance Health served approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, ranking among the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership. Approximately 32% of total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies in 2025, up from 29% in 2023. The company's Blue Cross and Blue Shield licenses span 14 states including California, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and New York, and in 2025 Elevance Health expanded into select service areas in Florida, Maryland, and Texas through its Simply Healthcare and Wellpoint brands.
Elevance Health earns revenue through four reportable segments: Health Benefits (risk-based and fee-based plans across commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid markets), CarelonRx (pharmacy services), Carelon Services (integrated physical, behavioral, and social care), and Corporate & Other. Commercial premiums are generally fixed for 12-month periods; Medicare Advantage revenues are based on CMS bids submitted six months before the contract year, with explicit gain and loss margin requirements. CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services — including home delivery, specialty pharmacies, and claims adjudication — to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C. (a CVS Health Corporation subsidiary) under an agreement extending through December 31, 2027. The Medicaid business spans 24 states and Washington D.C., covering managed care for low-income populations, dual-eligible members, and specialty programs such as LTSS, CHIP, and behavioral health. Fee-based administrative services — claims processing, provider network access, and medical management — serve employer groups that self-fund benefit plans.
Show full overview
The CMS Star Rating program creates a binary revenue threshold for Elevance Health's Medicare Advantage business: plans rated at 4.0 stars or higher earn quality-based bonus payments, and plans paying minimum MLR rebates for five consecutive years face CMS contract termination. The company's 2026 Star Ratings (released October 2025, effective for 2027 bonus payments) showed approximately 59% of Medicare Advantage members enrolled in plans rated at least 4.0 stars, up from 40% under 2025 Star Ratings. Plans that lose 4.0-star status lose year-round marketing rights, which may impact membership growth depending on future CMS rating changes.
See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
From Elevance Health, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Elevance Health, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Elevance Health Files Prospectus For Mixed Shelf Offering; Terms Not Disclosed — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Evercore ISI Adjusts Price Target on Elevance Health to $440 From $460 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS 'Drug Middlemen Will Soon Have to Share Details on How They Are Paid; New Labor Department regulation will require pharm — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Senators Query Elevance Health Regarding CMS Data Requests and Coverage Terminations — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Elevance Health Price Target Raised by US Capital Advisors — fiscal.ai Oct 27, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government32%10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 32% ... of our total consolidated revenues from agencies of the U.S. government for the years ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyCVS (CaremarkPCS Health)10-K Item 1: 'CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C., which is a subsidiary of CVS Health Corporation ... extending through December 31, 2027.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $414.41, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $388.59. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $434.14 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $388.59. Stop-loss: $388.59.
Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Negative momentum.
Elevance Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover ELV with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $482.
What does Elevance Health, Inc. do?Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million...
Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company generates revenue through risk-based premiums across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare, and Medicaid markets, fee-based administrative services, and pharmacy/health services through its Carelon segment; roughly 32% of 2025 total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies.