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ELVElevance Health, Inc.Sell5.3·$414.41
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Elevance Health has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 11%, but the business scores below the minimum quality threshold with no identified competitive moat and a 0.72-to-1 unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, making the current setup unattractive for new capital with only 4.1% headroom remaining to the price target.

Thesis pillars

  • Recent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Quality Below Investment Floor↑Improving
  • Momentum Weakness Volume Distribution↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. At $414.41, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).

Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company... Read more

$414.41+4.8% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 11 Healthcare Plans
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.89%
IncomeYield1.63%(5y avg 1.31%)Payout29.17%sustainable
Stop $388.59Analyst target $434.14(−10% haircut)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst consensus$482.38+16.4%21 analysts
$434.14Analyst target
$414.41price
$482.38mean
$523

Sell if holding. At $414.41, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Elevance Health, Inc.

About Elevance Health, Inc.

Elevance Health served approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, ranking among the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership. Approximately 32% of total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies in 2025, up from 29% in 2023. The company's Blue Cross and Blue Shield licenses span 14 states including California, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and New York, and in 2025 Elevance Health expanded into select service areas in Florida, Maryland, and Texas through its Simply Healthcare and Wellpoint brands.

Elevance Health earns revenue through four reportable segments: Health Benefits (risk-based and fee-based plans across commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid markets), CarelonRx (pharmacy services), Carelon Services (integrated physical, behavioral, and social care), and Corporate & Other. Commercial premiums are generally fixed for 12-month periods; Medicare Advantage revenues are based on CMS bids submitted six months before the contract year, with explicit gain and loss margin requirements. CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services — including home delivery, specialty pharmacies, and claims adjudication — to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C. (a CVS Health Corporation subsidiary) under an agreement extending through December 31, 2027. The Medicaid business spans 24 states and Washington D.C., covering managed care for low-income populations, dual-eligible members, and specialty programs such as LTSS, CHIP, and behavioral health. Fee-based administrative services — claims processing, provider network access, and medical management — serve employer groups that self-fund benefit plans.

Show full overview

The CMS Star Rating program creates a binary revenue threshold for Elevance Health's Medicare Advantage business: plans rated at 4.0 stars or higher earn quality-based bonus payments, and plans paying minimum MLR rebates for five consecutive years face CMS contract termination. The company's 2026 Star Ratings (released October 2025, effective for 2027 bonus payments) showed approximately 59% of Medicare Advantage members enrolled in plans rated at least 4.0 stars, up from 40% under 2025 Star Ratings. Plans that lose 4.0-star status lose year-round marketing rights, which may impact membership growth depending on future CMS rating changes.

See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

From Elevance Health, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Elevance Health, Inc.

Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jan 28, 202791d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.8%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.6
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$89.9B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn2.5%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth1.4%
Beta0.71
Dividend1.63%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.42bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$620+49.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government32%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated approximately 32% ... of our total consolidated revenues from agencies of the U.S. government for the years ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyCVS (CaremarkPCS Health)
    10-K Item 1: 'CarelonRx delegates certain core pharmacy services to CaremarkPCS Health, L.L.C., which is a subsidiary of CVS Health Corporation ... extending through December 31, 2027.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $375.74Resistance $450.69

Price Targets

$389
$434
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-28 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ELV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $414.41, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $388.59. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ELV stock price target?

Analyst target: $434.14 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $388.59. Stop-loss: $388.59.

What are the risks of investing in ELV?

Thin upside margin: 4.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Negative momentum.

Is ELV overvalued or undervalued?

Elevance Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ELV?

28 analysts cover ELV with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $482.

What does Elevance Health, Inc. do?Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million...

Elevance Health is one of the largest U.S. health insurers by medical membership, serving approximately 45.2 million medical members through affiliated health plans as of December 31, 2025, as a Blue Cross Blue Shield licensee in 14 states plus non-BCBS brands. The company generates revenue through risk-based premiums across Individual, Employer Group, Medicare, and Medicaid markets, fee-based administrative services, and pharmacy/health services through its Carelon segment; roughly 32% of 2025 total consolidated revenues came from U.S. government agencies.

Related stocks: OSCR (Oscar Health, Inc.) · CVS (CVS Health Corporation) · UNH (UnitedHealth Group Incorporated) · CI (The Cigna Group) · HUM (Humana Inc.)
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