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Community Financial System, Inc (CBU) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $64.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRB and OCC.

Community Financial System operates Community Bank N.A. with 192 branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern Pennsylvania, Vermont, Western Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire, plus BPAS employee benefit services. Revenue comes from commercial and retail banking and fee... Read more

$64.15-1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#105 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $61.45Target $63.07(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$67.17+4.7%6 analysts
$63.07our TP
$64.15price
$67.17mean
$62
$73

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $64.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRB and OCC. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRB and OCC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (5.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)11.8
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.8%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth9.5%
Beta
Dividend2.97%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.35bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$30-53.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryFRB and OCC
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company, as a financial holding company, is subject to regulation by the FRB and its banking subsidiary is subject to regulation by the OCC as well as the FDIC'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02LOW
    Board elected Brenda M. Hall as new independent director effective March 1, 2026; former EVP/COO at Selective Insurance Group. Board now has 14 directors, 13 of whom are independent.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
0.8
52w Position
9.2
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $58.89Resistance $64.36

Price Targets

$61
$63
A.Upside-1.7%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $64.15 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRB and OCC. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $61.45. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CBU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.07 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $61.45. Stop-loss: $61.45.

What are the risks of investing in CBU?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRB and OCC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away).

Is CBU overvalued or undervalued?

Community Financial System, Inc trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 11.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CBU?

10 analysts cover CBU with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $67.

What does Community Financial System, Inc do?Community Financial System operates Community Bank N.A. with 192 branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern...

Community Financial System operates Community Bank N.A. with 192 branches across Upstate New York, Northeastern Pennsylvania, Vermont, Western Massachusetts, and Southern New Hampshire, plus BPAS employee benefit services. Revenue comes from commercial and retail banking and fee income from retirement and employee benefit plan administration.

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