Commerce Bancshares is a high-quality regional bank with a strong earnings track record and institutional buying support, but the stock has essentially reached analyst consensus fair value, leaving a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.08-to-1 that does not justify new capital at this level — patience for a meaningful pullback is the more prudent posture.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Discipline↓Deteriorating
- Quality Margins Financial Health→Stable
- Momentum Volume Accumulation↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-headquartered bank holding company with $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8 billion in loans, and $25.6 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating 140 branches primarily in Missouri, Kansas, and central Illinois. Net interest... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
About Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
Commerce Bancshares reported $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8 billion in loans, and $25.6 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating 140 branch facilities primarily in Missouri, Kansas, and central Illinois. Net interest income represented 63% of total 2025 revenue. Commercial, Retail Banking, and Wealth segments contributed 48%, 28%, and 24% of total segment pre-tax income respectively. The holding company is primarily regulated by the Federal Reserve Board under the Bank Holding Company Act; Commerce Bank is subject to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Missouri Division of Finance.
Commerce Bank generates revenue through net interest income on its $17.8 billion loan portfolio and fee-based income across three segments. Commercial provides corporate lending, merchant and commercial bank card products, payment solutions, leasing, and institutional brokerage services. Retail Banking covers the branch network, consumer installment lending, personal mortgage banking, and card activities. Wealth serves personal and institutional clients with trust, estate planning, and discretionary investment management. The bank held approximately 10% of the deposit market share in Kansas City and approximately 7% in St. Louis, its two largest markets, as of the 2025 10-K. On January 1, 2026, Commerce completed the acquisition of FineMark Holdings in an all-stock transaction—13 offices in Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina; $2.7 billion in loans; $8.7 billion in assets under administration—extending the Wealth segment into southeastern U.S. markets.
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The 10-K explicitly contrasts Commerce Bancshares' geographic profile with more geographically diversified peers: the company provides financial services primarily throughout Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, with growing presences in Texas, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Tennessee. A prolonged economic downturn in those core Midwest states could materially affect financial condition. The company carried a net unrealized loss of $646.8 million in its available-for-sale debt securities at December 31, 2025—a residual from the 2022–2023 rate-hike cycle—and the Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts during 2025, with further policy trajectory uncertain.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Commerce Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Why Commerce Bancshares Shares Are Sinking Today - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Could Be 18% Below Fair Value On Earnings Focus - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street negative
- NEWS Bank of America Corp DE Buys 398,670 Shares of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. $CBSH - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS How Commerce Bancshares' (CBSH) Finance Leadership Shift Could Shape Its Earnings Story - Sahm — Sahm neutral
- NEWS Will Commerce (CBSH) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicMissouri, Kansas, and central Illinois10-K Item 1A: 'the Company provides financial services primarily throughout the states of Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-30Item 5.02MEDIUMPaul A. Steiner, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, resigned effective July 7, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. No disagreement with Company cited. Successor named: Steven A. Brandjord, effective May 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-28Item 5.02LOWSteven A. Brandjord appointed Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 15, 2026. Previously announced March 30, 2026 as successor to outgoing CAO Paul Steiner.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOWBenjamin F. Rassieur III retired from the Board of Directors effective May 7, 2026, due to the mandatory retirement requirements of the Company. Board member since 1997; former Audit and Risk Committee chairman. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $55.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $56.02 (+1.8%), stop $53.07 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $56.02 (+1.8% upside). Analyst target $56.02 (+1.8%), stop $53.07 (−3.7%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $53.07.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.3 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
16 analysts cover CBSH with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $64.
What does Commerce Bancshares, Inc. do?Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-headquartered bank holding company with $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8...
Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-headquartered bank holding company with $32.9 billion in consolidated assets, $17.8 billion in loans, and $25.6 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating 140 branches primarily in Missouri, Kansas, and central Illinois. Net interest income represented 63% of total 2025 revenue; three segments—Commercial (48%), Retail Banking (28%), and Wealth (24%)—drove pre-tax income.