Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-based bank holding company owning Commerce Bank, providing retail, mortgage, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management services through 140 branches. With $32.9B in assets at Dec 31, 2025, the bank operates primarily in Missouri,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicMissouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado10-K Item 1A: 'the Company provides financial services primarily throughout the states of Missouri, Kansas, central Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-30Item 5.02LOWPaul A. Steiner (Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer) resigned to pursue other opportunities, effective July 7, 2026. Successor: Steven A. Brandjord named as Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer effective May 2026. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-09Item 5.02LOWCompensation and Human Resources Committee approved 2026 base salaries, 2025 performance bonuses, and long-term equity awards (RSUs) for CEO John W. Kemper and other named executive officers. Routine annual compensatory arrangements.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.27 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $50.12. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $51.29 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $50.12. Stop-loss: $50.12.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.8 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover CBSH with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $59.
What does Commerce Bancshares, Inc. do?Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-based bank holding company owning Commerce Bank, providing retail, mortgage,...
Commerce Bancshares is a Missouri-based bank holding company owning Commerce Bank, providing retail, mortgage, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management services through 140 branches. With $32.9B in assets at Dec 31, 2025, the bank operates primarily in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado; net interest income represents 63% of total revenue.