First Busey has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 7% above consensus at a forward multiple of 10.4x and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, signaling an attractively valued, financially sound franchise; however, with only 0.9% headroom to the near-term resistance target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.21-to-1, the current price offers far more downside than upside and the position does not warrant adding to at present.
Thesis pillars
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Forward Valuation→Stable
- Price Exhausted Unfavorable Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
First Busey Corporation (BUSE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
First Busey Corporation, an $18.10 billion financial holding company, operates Busey Bank through 79 banking centers in 10 states — 50 in Illinois — along with $15.66 billion in Wealth Management assets under care and the FirsTech payment processing subsidiary. Revenue comes... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About First Busey Corporation
About First Busey Corporation
First Busey Corporation held $18.10 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, following the March 2025 CrossFirst Bankshares acquisition that expanded Busey Bank to 79 banking centers across 10 states. Wealth Management assets under care stood at $15.66 billion. Illinois anchors the footprint with 50 of the 79 banking centers, and Busey Bank ranked fourth in total Illinois deposits among 349 in-state institutions as of June 30, 2025.
First Busey earns revenue through three operating businesses. Busey Bank's principal income comes from interest and fees on commercial, CRE, real estate construction, and agricultural loans, along with wealth management fees and payment technology solutions revenue via FirsTech. The Wealth Management business serves individuals, businesses, and foundations through investment management, trust and estate advisory, brokerage, and farm management services. FirsTech delivers multi-channel payment processing to clients in financial services, utilities, insurance, and telecommunications. The company expanded its multi-state franchise through CrossFirst Bankshares (March 2025, adding banking centers in Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Arizona, Texas, and New Mexico) and Merchants and Manufacturers Bank Corporation (April 2024, adding suburban Chicago presence). CRE is a significant component of the loan portfolio, with owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied categories each carrying distinct repayment risk profiles that could adversely affect credit quality in a downturn.
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Illinois represents the core of Busey Bank's deposit franchise: 50 of its 79 banking centers are located in the state, and the bank ranked fourth in total deposits within Illinois as of June 30, 2025. The Federal Reserve serves as Busey Bank's primary federal regulator; recent Fed guidance has signaled efforts to streamline examination processes, which the 10-K characterizes as potentially favorable to operations. Separately, CRE concentration is a named credit risk — if loan portfolio concentrations are not effectively monitored, the company notes heightened credit losses and earnings volatility may result.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From First Busey Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — First Busey Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS First Busey Corporation 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:BUSE) 2026-07-29 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative
- NEWS What's Behind First Busey (NASDAQ:BUSE) Earnings Buzz Today? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media neutral
- NEWS What's Behind First Busey (NASDAQ:BUSE) Earnings Buzz Today? - kalkinemedia.com — kalkinemedia.com neutral
- NEWS First Busey Corp (BUSE) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS First Busey (BUSE) Reaffirmed Its Dividend, Is The Stock Overvalued? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicIllinois10-K Item 1: 'Busey Bank now has a total of 79 banking centers across 10 states, with 50 in Illinois'
- MEDIUMloan_portfolioCRE10-K Item 1A: 'CRE is a significant component of Busey's loan portfolio and is inherently sensitive to broader economic and market fluctuations'
- HIGHregulatoryFederal Reserve10-K Item 1A: 'the Federal Reserve, Busey Bank's primary federal regulator'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-22Item 5.02LOWOn May 20, 2026, stockholders approved the First Busey Corporation Second Amended 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, adding 2,100,000 shares for equity awards. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departure or appointment disclosed.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.24, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $28.21 reached (−3.5%), stop $28.10 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $28.21 reached (−3.5% from $29.24); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $28.21 reached (−3.5%), stop $28.10 (−4.1%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $28.10.
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Federal Reserve; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
First Busey Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.9 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover BUSE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $32.
What does First Busey Corporation do?First Busey Corporation, an $18.10 billion financial holding company, operates Busey Bank through 79 banking centers in...
First Busey Corporation, an $18.10 billion financial holding company, operates Busey Bank through 79 banking centers in 10 states — 50 in Illinois — along with $15.66 billion in Wealth Management assets under care and the FirsTech payment processing subsidiary. Revenue comes from banking interest and fees, wealth management fees, and payment technology solutions. Illinois anchors the franchise, with Busey Bank ranking fourth in total state deposits among 349 in-state institutions.