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ARMArm Holdings plcSell5.3·$384.90+12.47%
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Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $384.90: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Rich valuation.

Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. The company provides a product... Read more

$384.90+10.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#22 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.18%
Stop $354.15Target $419.43(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$257.30-33.2%37 analysts
$419.43our TP
$384.90price
$257.30mean
$125
$500

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $384.90: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-37.8% upside)
Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)453.3
P/E (Fwd)124.1
Mkt Cap$406.7B
EV/EBITDA379.1
Profit Mgn18.4%
ROE12.0%
Rev Growth20.1%
Beta3.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.07bearish
IV113%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Forward Pe
1.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
3.5
Forward P/E: 124.1xPEG: 3.31Expensive valuation

Volatile — 10.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Short Interest
3.6
Put Call
6.2
Days To Cover
9.4
High IV: 113%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.2
Growth Rank
4.3
Quality Rank
5.9
GatesA.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $203.00Resistance $427.99

Price Targets

$354
$419
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-37.8% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $384.90: Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $354.15. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $419.43 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $354.15. Stop-loss: $354.15.

What are the risks of investing in ARM?

Target reached (-37.8% upside); Risk below floor (2.7 < 3.0).

Is ARM overvalued or undervalued?

Arm Holdings plc trades at a P/E of 453.3 (forward 124.1). TrendMatrix value score: 2.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARM?

44 analysts cover ARM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $257.

What does Arm Holdings plc do?Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP),...

Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. The company provides a product portfolio, including CPU IP, GPU and neural processing unit (NPU) accelerators, system IP such as interconnects, compute platform products including pre-integrated CSSs, and development tools and software. The company serves semiconductor companies, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud service providers (CSPs), and organizations developing chips for end markets such as smartphones, consumer electronics, industrial IoT, embedded systems, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and robotics. It provides its products and services in the United States, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Cambridge, United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · CRDO (Credo Technology Group Holding ) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.)
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