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AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc.Sell4.4·$16.44-4.86%
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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality.

Atlas Energy Solutions produces frac sand proppant and provides logistics services (including the 42-mile Dune Express conveyor) primarily in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; its Power segment rents natural gas generators for oilfield production and artificial... Read more

$16.44+5.4% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#27 of 30 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.24%
IncomeYield5.79%Payout808.33%at-risk
Stop $15.89Target $17.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$19.92+21.1%12 analysts
$17.33our TP
$16.44price
$19.92mean
$13
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

About Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

Atlas Energy Solutions operates 14 proppant production facilities in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico—including the Kermit K1/K2 and K115/874 complexes and the Monahans site—holding 571.3 million tons of proven and probable sand reserves with a reserve life estimated at up to 29 years for the K1/K2 facilities. The 42-mile Dune Express conveyor—capable of transporting 13 million tons of proppant annually and the longest conveyor in the United States—anchors the logistics platform.

Atlas generates revenue from two business segments. Sand and Logistics sells 40/70-mesh and 100-mesh proppant at the mine gate or as an integrated mine-to-wellhead solution, with transportation costs potentially representing more than 50% of delivered proppant cost in many instances, making the Dune Express' low-unit-cost delivery to the Northern Delaware Basin a differentiated asset. The Power segment rents natural gas-powered reciprocating generators to support oil and gas production and artificial lift operations across U.S. resource basins; the fleet exceeded 1,000 units at year-end 2025. In November 2025, Atlas entered a reservation agreement to manufacture approximately 240 megawatts of additional power generation equipment at a total cost of approximately $278.3 million, with deliveries expected to begin in late-2026. Two customers collectively accounted for more than 30% of the Power segment's 2025 revenues, and equipment supply for the power business depends on a sole key supplier—risks the filing characterizes as potentially having a material adverse effect on operations.

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Atlas' entire operational footprint is anchored in the Permian Basin, making revenue across both segments structurally dependent on Permian completions activity. The 10-K explicitly states that demand for proppant is closely related to the number of oil and natural gas wells completed in geological formations where sand-based proppant is used in fracture treatments—and that oil and gas price declines historically lead exploration and production companies to reduce completions. Any sustained Permian activity downturn would simultaneously reduce proppant demand, lower logistics volumes on the Dune Express, and could weigh on generator rentals as well, given that distributed power customers are tied to production-level spending.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

From Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202662d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst Cluster(4) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole key power equipment supplier
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)50.5
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA21.1
Profit Mgn-9.3%
ROE-8.0%
Rev Growth-10.8%
Beta0.98
Dividend5.79%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV88%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1: 'Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is a leading proppant producer, logistics, and distributed power solutions provider, primarily serving the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 power segment customers30%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our power segment derived more than 30% of its total revenues from two customers'
  • HIGHSuppliersole key power equipment supplier
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our power generation business is dependent on a sole key supplier for access to the unique equipment used in the provision of our distributed power offering'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
1.0
Value Rank
4.8

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.1
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.5
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.38Resistance $20.13

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside+5.4%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AESI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.89. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AESI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.33 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $15.89. Stop-loss: $15.89.

What are the risks of investing in AESI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Supplier: sole key power equipment supplier; Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is AESI overvalued or undervalued?

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 50.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AESI?

18 analysts cover AESI with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. do?Atlas Energy Solutions produces frac sand proppant and provides logistics services (including the 42-mile Dune Express...

Atlas Energy Solutions produces frac sand proppant and provides logistics services (including the 42-mile Dune Express conveyor) primarily in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; its Power segment rents natural gas generators for oilfield production and artificial lift operations across major US resource basins. Revenue comes from proppant/logistics sales to E&P operators and power rental fees.

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