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Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Negative momentum.

Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer and reinsurer writing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance worldwide through wholly owned subsidiaries. In 2025, Arch wrote $16.5 billion of net premiums with approximately $26.9 billion in capital; the company... Read more

$94.57+4.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 12 Insurance - Diversified
Stop $90.04Target $98.53(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$109.47+15.8%19 analysts
$98.53our TP
$94.57price
$109.47mean
$125

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.5Qual6.5Grw5.8Mom3.9Sent6.9Ins3.8Peer4.1Tech7.8Risk7.06.1OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 52%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.3%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.3
P/E (Fwd)9.4
Mkt Cap$33.4B
EV/EBITDA5.6
Profit Mgn24.6%
ROE21.3%
Rev Growth-3.3%
Beta0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV50%normal
Max Pain$70-26.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $91.44Resistance $99.68

Price Targets

$90
$99
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ACGL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $94.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $98.53 (+4.2%), stop $90.04 (−5.0%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ACGL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $98.53 (+4.3% upside). Target $98.53 (+4.2%), stop $90.04 (−5.0%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $90.04.

What are the risks of investing in ACGL?

Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Negative momentum.

Is ACGL overvalued or undervalued?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. trades at a P/E of 7.3 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ACGL?

27 analysts cover ACGL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $109.

What does Arch Capital Group Ltd. do?Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer and reinsurer writing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage...

Arch Capital Group is a Bermuda-based specialty insurer and reinsurer writing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance worldwide through wholly owned subsidiaries. In 2025, Arch wrote $16.5 billion of net premiums with approximately $26.9 billion in capital; the company focuses on specialty lines and avoids commodity insurance.

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