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AAPLApple Inc.Hold5.8·$291.52-1.39%
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Consumer Electronics

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $291.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

The Company designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The Company's fiscal year is the 52- or 53-week period that ends on the last Saturday of September.

$291.52+6.8% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 4 Consumer Electronics
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.36%
IncomeYield0.37%(5y avg 0.50%)Payout12.59%sustainable
Stop $278.76Target $311.05(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$312.72+7.3%43 analysts
$311.05our TP
$291.52price
$312.72mean
$215
$400

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $291.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.2
P/E (Fwd)30.3
Mkt Cap$4.28T
EV/EBITDA26.8
Profit Mgn27.2%
ROE141.5%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta1.09
Dividend0.37%
Rating analysts55

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV42%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 20, 2026, Apple Inc. ("Apple") announced that Tim Cook will transition from his role as Chief Executive Officer to Executive Chair of Apple's Board of Directors (the "Board"), effective September 1, 2026 (the "Transition Date").
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
3.6
Ps
3.8
Forward Pe
3.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.1
Forward P/E: 30.3xPEG: 2.35

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.8
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $287.38Resistance $317.40

Price Targets

$279
$311
A.Upside+6.7%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AAPL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $291.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $311.05 (+6.7%), stop $278.76 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AAPL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $311.05 (+6.8% upside). Target $311.05 (+6.7%), stop $278.76 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $278.76.

What are the risks of investing in AAPL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is AAPL overvalued or undervalued?

Apple Inc. trades at a P/E of 35.2 (forward 30.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AAPL?

55 analysts cover AAPL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $313.

What does Apple Inc. do?The Company designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and...

The Company designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The Company's fiscal year is the 52- or 53-week period that ends on the last Saturday of September.

Related stocks: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur) · NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) · AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) · MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) · MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)
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