Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
YSWY · Why this verdict
Why Yesway (YSWY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine's momentum gate failed at 2.7 versus the 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume signaling distribution, consistent with the flagged negative price momentum risk. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should rise above 4.5 if the price trend improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA growth score near the top of its peer group and a sizable analyst upside estimate suggest fundamentals could pull momentum higher even from a weak starting point. | ||
The engine flags quality below its 4.0 floor at 3.4, driven by thin gross, operating, and net margins and no discernible competitive moat in the grocery retail business. Warnings | Quality score should rise above the 4.0 floor if margins expand from current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterGrocery retail is a structurally thin-margin, low-moat business, so weak margins may be a permanent industry feature rather than a fixable quality issue. | ||
Value-trap signals — high leverage (D/E 2.1) and material insider selling — suggest the stock's statistically cheap valuation (PEG 0.11) may mask elevated financial risk rather than represent a genuine bargain. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully if the value-trap risk fades. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider selling can reflect personal liquidity needs rather than a negative view of the business, and elevated leverage is common in real-estate-heavy grocery retail models. | ||
Yesway ranks as an industry growth leader among peers, with its growth-rank component near the top of its group, offering a potential offset to the quality concerns elsewhere in the profile. Peer-rank breakdown | The growth peer rank should stay elevated near current levels if the growth-leadership thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth without quality — thin margins and no moat — can simply mean the company is expanding revenue while destroying returns on capital. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed at 2.7 versus the 4.5 threshold, with falling on-balance volume signaling distribution, consistent with the flagged negative price momentum risk.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should rise above 4.5 if the price trend improves.
CounterA growth score near the top of its peer group and a sizable analyst upside estimate suggest fundamentals could pull momentum higher even from a weak starting point.
The engine flags quality below its 4.0 floor at 3.4, driven by thin gross, operating, and net margins and no discernible competitive moat in the grocery retail business.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above the 4.0 floor if margins expand from current levels.
CounterGrocery retail is a structurally thin-margin, low-moat business, so weak margins may be a permanent industry feature rather than a fixable quality issue.
Value-trap signals — high leverage (D/E 2.1) and material insider selling — suggest the stock's statistically cheap valuation (PEG 0.11) may mask elevated financial risk rather than represent a genuine bargain.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully if the value-trap risk fades.
CounterInsider selling can reflect personal liquidity needs rather than a negative view of the business, and elevated leverage is common in real-estate-heavy grocery retail models.
Yesway ranks as an industry growth leader among peers, with its growth-rank component near the top of its group, offering a potential offset to the quality concerns elsewhere in the profile.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The growth peer rank should stay elevated near current levels if the growth-leadership thesis holds.
CounterGrowth without quality — thin margins and no moat — can simply mean the company is expanding revenue while destroying returns on capital.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Yesway ranks as an industry growth leader with a statistically cheap valuation, but quality sits below the engine's floor and value-trap signals — high leverage, insider selling, and a failed momentum gate — argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 5.1 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 3.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 3.7 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.00
Upside
+25.2%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Growth at 8.1, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 3.4, Momentum at 3.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Thin Margins
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.4.
- P2Value Trap Leverage Insider Selling
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 1.5 from the current 2.1.
- P3Failed Momentum Gate Negative Trend
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 2.7.
- P4Industry Growth Leadership Offset
Trip ifGrowth peer rank falls below 5.0 from the current 8.18.