Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.2x
YSWY · Why this verdict
Why Yesway (YSWY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Yesway is a fast-growing convenience-store operator with 38% revenue growth, but quality is below the minimum, leverage is high and the price is only 4.6% below the analyst target after an overbought rally, so the stance is to exit rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 3.1 against a 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and very thin gross margin (score 0.2), so the fundamentals do not clear the engine's quality bar. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins expand with scale. | ↑Improving |
| CounterConvenience retail is a low-margin format by nature, and a current ratio score of 5.5 shows liquidity is adequate. | ||
RSI of 88 marks an overbought bear rally with rising OBV, and the forward P/E of 20.6x is not cheap for a low-margin retailer. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 without the price falling below $22.92. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating and MACD and OBV are at their highest scores, so momentum could persist. | ||
Revenue growth is strong at 38% YoY, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among grocery-store peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue continues to grow at least 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is low (0.33) and rapid expansion by acquisition can inflate growth while diluting margins, with thin operating margin scores of 2.3. | ||
Value-trap signals flag high leverage (D/E 2.0) and material insider selling, with short interest at 15%. Warnings | Debt-to-equity falls below 2.0 as earnings scale and no further insider selling appears. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider net activity over the last 90 days is $0, and institutions are accumulating, which contradicts the insider-selling flag. | ||
Upside to the $25.77 analyst target is only 4.6% from $24.64 against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.31. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised well above $25.77 or the price consolidates above $22.92. | →Stable |
| CounterAnother reading shows 20% analyst upside, so the haircut target may understate the room if estimates rise. | ||
Quality scores 3.1 against a 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and very thin gross margin (score 0.2), so the fundamentals do not clear the engine's quality bar.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins expand with scale.
CounterConvenience retail is a low-margin format by nature, and a current ratio score of 5.5 shows liquidity is adequate.
RSI of 88 marks an overbought bear rally with rising OBV, and the forward P/E of 20.6x is not cheap for a low-margin retailer.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 without the price falling below $22.92.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating and MACD and OBV are at their highest scores, so momentum could persist.
Revenue growth is strong at 38% YoY, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among grocery-store peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue continues to grow at least 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is low (0.33) and rapid expansion by acquisition can inflate growth while diluting margins, with thin operating margin scores of 2.3.
Value-trap signals flag high leverage (D/E 2.0) and material insider selling, with short interest at 15%.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 2.0 as earnings scale and no further insider selling appears.
CounterInsider net activity over the last 90 days is $0, and institutions are accumulating, which contradicts the insider-selling flag.
Upside to the $25.77 analyst target is only 4.6% from $24.64 against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.31.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised well above $25.77 or the price consolidates above $22.92.
CounterAnother reading shows 20% analyst upside, so the haircut target may understate the room if estimates rise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.2 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.44
Upside
+6.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.44.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Technical at 3.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leader
Trip ifYoY revenue growth falls below 15% from the current 38%.
- P2Quality Below Minimum
Trip ifQuality score falls below 2.5 from the current 3.1.
- P3High Leverage Value Trap Signals
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2.5 from the current 2.0.
- P4Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice rises above the $25.77 analyst target, more than 4.6% above $24.64, without a target increase.
- P5Overbought Bear Rally
Trip ifPrice falls below $22.92, the stop level, a drop of more than 7% from $24.64.