Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.4 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
YORW · Why this verdict
Why The York Water (YORW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
York Water has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, reflecting operating consistency in a highly regulated water utility. Bull case | The beat streak should continue, with the company beating in 3 or more of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe trailing average surprise is roughly flat, and the utility has still posted a large miss (-26.47% surprise) within the last year, showing earnings can disappoint. | ||
RSI at 82 combined with a flat-to-negative 200-day MA slope signals late-cycle distribution risk even though price remains above the 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool into a more neutral range if the rally has further room to run rather than roll over. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume in the same window suggests continued accumulation rather than distribution. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.6, and the analyst target has already been reached with an implied -18.8% upside, meaning the risk-reward at current price is unfavorable. Engine gate (failed) | Asymmetry ratio should turn positive and clear 1.5 if a better entry point reopens. | →Stable |
| CounterThe action note still calls for maintaining the existing position, implying underlying business quality doesn't warrant an exit despite the poor asymmetry reading. | ||
Despite strong margins near 27%, the engine flags an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow to net income at -136% and a failing Rule of 40 score of -28. Quality breakdown | The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should turn positive if the cash conversion issue resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated water utilities often show large working-capital and capex swings that distort near-term free cash flow without indicating a structural quality problem. | ||
York Water has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, reflecting operating consistency in a highly regulated water utility.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue, with the company beating in 3 or more of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe trailing average surprise is roughly flat, and the utility has still posted a large miss (-26.47% surprise) within the last year, showing earnings can disappoint.
RSI at 82 combined with a flat-to-negative 200-day MA slope signals late-cycle distribution risk even though price remains above the 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool into a more neutral range if the rally has further room to run rather than roll over.
CounterRising on-balance volume in the same window suggests continued accumulation rather than distribution.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.6, and the analyst target has already been reached with an implied -18.8% upside, meaning the risk-reward at current price is unfavorable.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should turn positive and clear 1.5 if a better entry point reopens.
CounterThe action note still calls for maintaining the existing position, implying underlying business quality doesn't warrant an exit despite the poor asymmetry reading.
Despite strong margins near 27%, the engine flags an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow to net income at -136% and a failing Rule of 40 score of -28.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should turn positive if the cash conversion issue resolves.
CounterRegulated water utilities often show large working-capital and capex swings that distort near-term free cash flow without indicating a structural quality problem.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
York Water's consistent earnings beats and best-in-class margins are offset by an overbought technical setup, a failed asymmetry gate at an already-reached price target, and a cash-conversion red flag on free cash flow.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -136% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: -28 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 8.4 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.5 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
- ▸Volume surge (3.3x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 7.9 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $72,876 (0.015% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 5.1 |
- ▸High IV: 118%
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.0=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.00
Upside
-15.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 6.6; weakest: Momentum at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.6, Growth at 6.6, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 4.6, Peer rank at 4.7, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Consistency
Trip ifMiss count rises to 2 or more out of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Overbought Late Cycle Distribution
Trip ifRSI falls below 60 from the current 82.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Target Reached
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current -2.6.
- P4Negative Free Cash Flow Quality Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio rises above 0% from the current -136%.