Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.55
YORW · Why this verdict
Why The York Water (YORW) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
York Water is a regulated water utility with strong margins, strong growth and a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, but the price is already above the analyst target and cash flow quality is flagged, so the stance is to hold rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
York Water beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters (average surprise about 12%), most recently $0.49 vs $0.40 in August 2026. Last 4 quarters | EPS beats continue at the November report in 12 days and in later quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEarlier in 2025 and 2024 the company missed several quarters in a row, so the current streak may reflect easy comparisons or one-time items. | ||
Growth is strong at 22% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $23.4M in June 2026 versus $19.1M a year earlier, and margins of 29% are best in class among peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue keeps growing at least 10% YoY, supported by rate increases, with margins above 25%. | →Stable |
| CounterUtility revenue growth depends on regulatory rate cases, and the 22% figure may be a one-off step-up rather than a repeatable pace. | ||
The price of $31.82 is already above the analyst target of $26.35 (the distance to target is -17.2%, so the price is 17.2% above it), leaving no upside to consensus. Warnings | Analyst targets are revised up toward the price or the price holds above $30.42. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe price is near the top of its 52-week range with rising OBV and a strong earnings streak, which can keep analysts chasing the price higher. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged with free cash flow at -88% of net income, as heavy capital spending absorbs cash, and the dividend is marked as a yield trap with unsafe coverage. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income as the capital program matures. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities routinely run negative free cash flow because capital spending is recovered through future rates, so this is structural rather than a warning sign. | ||
Insiders sold about $266,240 and bought $44,020 in 90 days (net -$222,220) and implied volatility of 69% is high for a utility ahead of earnings in 12 days. Insider | Insider buying continues to offset selling and implied volatility falls after the report. | →Stable |
| CounterFive insider purchases against one sale show some buying conviction, and the sale is only 0.043% of market cap. | ||
York Water beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters (average surprise about 12%), most recently $0.49 vs $0.40 in August 2026.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue at the November report in 12 days and in later quarters.
CounterEarlier in 2025 and 2024 the company missed several quarters in a row, so the current streak may reflect easy comparisons or one-time items.
Growth is strong at 22% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $23.4M in June 2026 versus $19.1M a year earlier, and margins of 29% are best in class among peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue keeps growing at least 10% YoY, supported by rate increases, with margins above 25%.
CounterUtility revenue growth depends on regulatory rate cases, and the 22% figure may be a one-off step-up rather than a repeatable pace.
The price of $31.82 is already above the analyst target of $26.35 (the distance to target is -17.2%, so the price is 17.2% above it), leaving no upside to consensus.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised up toward the price or the price holds above $30.42.
CounterThe price is near the top of its 52-week range with rising OBV and a strong earnings streak, which can keep analysts chasing the price higher.
Earnings quality is flagged with free cash flow at -88% of net income, as heavy capital spending absorbs cash, and the dividend is marked as a yield trap with unsafe coverage.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income as the capital program matures.
CounterRegulated utilities routinely run negative free cash flow because capital spending is recovered through future rates, so this is structural rather than a warning sign.
Insiders sold about $266,240 and bought $44,020 in 90 days (net -$222,220) and implied volatility of 69% is high for a utility ahead of earnings in 12 days.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues to offset selling and implied volatility falls after the report.
CounterFive insider purchases against one sale show some buying conviction, and the sale is only 0.043% of market cap.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -88% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: -3 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 7.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $222,220 (0.044% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.14
Upside
-15.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.8; weakest: Momentum at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 4.3, Sentiment at 5.0, and Technical at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Growth Best In Class Margins
Trip ifYoY quarterly revenue growth falls below 8% from about 22%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $30.42, the stop level, a drop of more than 4.4% from $31.82.
- P4Cash Flow Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below -150% from the current -88%.
- P5Insider And Volatility Risk
Trip ifNet 90-day insider selling exceeds $500,000.