Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
YEXT · Why this verdict
Why Yext (YEXT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Yext is a cheaply valued software company with excellent cash conversion and 3 EPS beats in the last 4 quarters, but revenue is slipping, estimates are being cut sharply and the price is above the analyst target, so the stance is to reduce rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining about 2%, with quarterly sales of $111.1M in July 2026 versus $113.1M a year earlier, and the growth rank is near the bottom of its peer group. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue returns to YoY growth and reaches the $111.8M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterThe decline is small and sales have been steady near $108M-$112M for four quarters, so the business may be stabilizing rather than shrinking. | ||
Yext beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses (average surprise about 16%), most recently $0.21 vs $0.17 in September 2026. Last 4 quarters | EPS beats continue at the December 2026 report, 44 days away. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are being cut sharply (down 45.8% over 30 days), so beats may come against a lowered bar rather than from stronger operations. | ||
Valuation is attractive at a forward P/E of 9.7x with a PEG of 0.02, and cash conversion is excellent at 160% FCF to net income with ROE of 28%. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and the forward multiple holds near 10x. | →Stable |
| CounterROE of 28% on a thin equity base overstates returns, and the Rule of 40 score of 8 fails, so cheapness may reflect a stagnant business. | ||
The price of $7.35 is already above the analyst target of $5.95 (the distance to target is -19.0%, so the price is 19.0% above it), and estimates are falling 45.8% over 30 days. Sentiment breakdown | Estimates stabilize and analyst targets rise toward the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price is above all moving averages with rising OBV, so buyers may be looking through the estimate cuts. | ||
RSI of 74 marks the stock overbought, short interest is 12% and implied volatility is 104%, raising the odds of a sharp pullback or squeeze. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 while the price holds above the $6.91 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterModest insider selling of 0.026% of market cap and rising OBV suggest the rally has support rather than being a short-covering spike. | ||
Revenue is declining about 2%, with quarterly sales of $111.1M in July 2026 versus $113.1M a year earlier, and the growth rank is near the bottom of its peer group.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue returns to YoY growth and reaches the $111.8M next-quarter estimate.
CounterThe decline is small and sales have been steady near $108M-$112M for four quarters, so the business may be stabilizing rather than shrinking.
Yext beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses (average surprise about 16%), most recently $0.21 vs $0.17 in September 2026.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue at the December 2026 report, 44 days away.
CounterEstimates are being cut sharply (down 45.8% over 30 days), so beats may come against a lowered bar rather than from stronger operations.
Valuation is attractive at a forward P/E of 9.7x with a PEG of 0.02, and cash conversion is excellent at 160% FCF to net income with ROE of 28%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and the forward multiple holds near 10x.
CounterROE of 28% on a thin equity base overstates returns, and the Rule of 40 score of 8 fails, so cheapness may reflect a stagnant business.
The price of $7.35 is already above the analyst target of $5.95 (the distance to target is -19.0%, so the price is 19.0% above it), and estimates are falling 45.8% over 30 days.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimates stabilize and analyst targets rise toward the current price.
CounterThe price is above all moving averages with rising OBV, so buyers may be looking through the estimate cuts.
RSI of 74 marks the stock overbought, short interest is 12% and implied volatility is 104%, raising the odds of a sharp pullback or squeeze.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 while the price holds above the $6.91 stop level.
CounterModest insider selling of 0.026% of market cap and rising OBV suggest the rally has support rather than being a short-covering spike.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.3 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 160% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 8 (fail)
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-45.8%)
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 3.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $191,661 (0.026% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.9 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.2 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -45.8% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.67
Upside
-17.1%
Downside
10.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.67 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Catalyst at 6.5, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Peer rank at 3.0, and Sentiment at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cheap Valuation Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF to net income conversion falls below 100% from the current 160%.
- P3Stalled Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $105M, more than 5% under the year-earlier $113.1M.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $6.91, the stop level, a drop of more than 6% from $7.35.
- P5Overbought Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% from the current 12%.