Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
YEXT · Why this verdict
Why Yext (YEXT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining about 1% year-over-year even as the stock trades at a deep discount (forward P/E near 7.5x, PEG 0.03), raising the question of whether the cheap valuation is a real opportunity or a shrinking business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, if the valuation gap reflects a genuine opportunity rather than a value trap. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bull case still flags an attractive valuation, and cheap multiples can persist for structurally challenged software companies without ever re-rating. | ||
The stock is in an overbought bear-market rally with RSI at 83 while still trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -9.7%/30 days). Momentum breakdown | The 200-day MA slope should turn positive if the recent bounce marks a genuine trend reversal rather than a temporary rally. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume in the same data suggests real buying interest, not just a technical head-fake. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.9, reflecting negative risk-reward as the analyst target has already been reached and leverage (D/E 9.2) further penalizes the setup. Engine gate (failed) | Asymmetry ratio should turn positive and clear 1.5 if the risk-reward setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh leverage combined with negative asymmetry could also foreshadow deeper price declines rather than a resolvable near-term setup. | ||
Yext has fallen 46% from its 52-week high, more than the engine's 40% threshold for flagging speculative-only names, and its $0.5B market cap keeps it below institutional reach. Suitability rationale | Drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow below 40% if the stock stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall, thinly institutionally-owned stocks in sustained downtrends can continue making new lows without a floor. | ||
Revenue is declining about 1% year-over-year even as the stock trades at a deep discount (forward P/E near 7.5x, PEG 0.03), raising the question of whether the cheap valuation is a real opportunity or a shrinking business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, above 0% YoY, if the valuation gap reflects a genuine opportunity rather than a value trap.
CounterThe bull case still flags an attractive valuation, and cheap multiples can persist for structurally challenged software companies without ever re-rating.
The stock is in an overbought bear-market rally with RSI at 83 while still trading below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -9.7%/30 days).
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day MA slope should turn positive if the recent bounce marks a genuine trend reversal rather than a temporary rally.
CounterRising on-balance volume in the same data suggests real buying interest, not just a technical head-fake.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.9, reflecting negative risk-reward as the analyst target has already been reached and leverage (D/E 9.2) further penalizes the setup.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should turn positive and clear 1.5 if the risk-reward setup improves.
CounterHigh leverage combined with negative asymmetry could also foreshadow deeper price declines rather than a resolvable near-term setup.
Yext has fallen 46% from its 52-week high, more than the engine's 40% threshold for flagging speculative-only names, and its $0.5B market cap keeps it below institutional reach.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow below 40% if the stock stabilizes.
CounterSmall, thinly institutionally-owned stocks in sustained downtrends can continue making new lows without a floor.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Yext trades at a statistically cheap valuation but shows declining revenue, an overbought technical bounce inside a confirmed downtrend, and a negative asymmetry reading, adding up to a genuinely unfavorable risk-reward setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.6 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.6 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 48%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 74% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 5 (fail)
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 6.0 |
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $462,057 (0.092% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 0.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.6 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.92
Upside
-13.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Value at 7.4, and Insider at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Cheap Valuation
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Overbought Bounce Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day MA slope rises above 0%/30d from the current -9.7%/30d.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Limited Reward
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current -0.9.
- P4Small Cap Drawdown Institutional Gap
Trip ifDrawdown from the 52-week high narrows to less than 40%, from the current 46%.