Value
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
XERS · Why this verdict
Why Xeris Biopharma Holdings (XERS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Xeris Biopharma shows a strong growth profile and positive price momentum, per the engine's bull case. Bull case | Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY and momentum score should hold above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the growth and momentum are durable. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum-driven strength in a small specialty-pharma name can reverse sharply once the current growth phase is priced in. | ||
Xeris carries a steep leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.9x, contributing to 2 of 5 value-trap signals alongside material insider selling. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from 19.9x over the next 12 months if the leverage risk is set to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterSpecialty pharma companies often carry high nominal debt-to-equity ratios due to low equity bases from historical losses, which can overstate true balance-sheet risk. | ||
Xeris is overbought with an RSI of 89 while its 200-day moving average slope has gone flat-to-negative, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk. Momentum breakdown | RSI should ease back toward the 40-60 range within the next month without the moving-average slope turning meaningfully negative. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock recovering from a death cross with improving MACD can stay overbought for an extended period as the recovery trend strengthens. | ||
Xeris shows excellent cash conversion at 351% of net income and a passing Rule of 40 score of 52, supporting the strong-quality read. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should stay above 40 over the next 12 months if the cash-conversion strength persists. | →Stable |
| CounterA 351% FCF-to-net-income ratio can be a one-period artifact of working-capital timing rather than a repeatable pattern. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of Xeris stock over the last 90 days, contributing to the engine's bearish insider signal. Insider breakdown | Insider transactions should turn net neutral or positive over the next 90 days if the selling was routine rather than a bearish signal. | →Stable |
| CounterAt $607,036 and 0.042% of market cap, the insider selling is modest enough that it may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view. | ||
Xeris Biopharma shows a strong growth profile and positive price momentum, per the engine's bull case.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 20% YoY and momentum score should hold above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the growth and momentum are durable.
CounterMomentum-driven strength in a small specialty-pharma name can reverse sharply once the current growth phase is priced in.
Xeris carries a steep leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 19.9x, contributing to 2 of 5 value-trap signals alongside material insider selling.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline meaningfully from 19.9x over the next 12 months if the leverage risk is set to ease.
CounterSpecialty pharma companies often carry high nominal debt-to-equity ratios due to low equity bases from historical losses, which can overstate true balance-sheet risk.
Xeris is overbought with an RSI of 89 while its 200-day moving average slope has gone flat-to-negative, a combination the engine flags as late-cycle distribution risk.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should ease back toward the 40-60 range within the next month without the moving-average slope turning meaningfully negative.
CounterA stock recovering from a death cross with improving MACD can stay overbought for an extended period as the recovery trend strengthens.
Xeris shows excellent cash conversion at 351% of net income and a passing Rule of 40 score of 52, supporting the strong-quality read.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should stay above 40 over the next 12 months if the cash-conversion strength persists.
CounterA 351% FCF-to-net-income ratio can be a one-period artifact of working-capital timing rather than a repeatable pattern.
Insiders have been net sellers of Xeris stock over the last 90 days, contributing to the engine's bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should turn net neutral or positive over the next 90 days if the selling was routine rather than a bearish signal.
CounterAt $607,036 and 0.042% of market cap, the insider selling is modest enough that it may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Xeris Biopharma combines 38% revenue growth and a Rule-of-40 pass with an overbought, late-cycle momentum setup (RSI 89) and value-trap warning signs — 19.9x leverage and modest insider selling — that the engine flags as risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 351% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 52 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 9.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 6.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 87)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 87 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 8.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $607,036 (0.042% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.88
Upside
+13.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.88 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.6, Technical at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.88 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Positive Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 38%, ending the strong-growth trend.
- P2Elevated Leverage Value Trap Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 5.0x from the current 19.9x, resolving the leverage penalty and value-trap concern.
- P3Overbought Late Cycle Distribution Risk
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 while price declines by more than 10%, confirming the late-cycle distribution risk played out.
- P4Elite Cash Conversion Rule Of 40 Pass
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40 from the current 52, ending the pass on that quality bar.
- P5Modest Insider Selling Bearish Tilt
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $2,000,000 in net value over the next 90 days, escalating beyond the current modest level.