Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
- ▸Attractively valued
WTW · Why this verdict
Why Willis Towers Watson Public Lim (WTW) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Willis Towers Watson is an attractively valued insurance broker trading at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x with a PEG ratio of 0.35, four consecutive earnings beats, 29% analyst upside potential, and free cash flow conversion of 123% of net income — a combination that positions it as a value-growth hybrid with recovery momentum developing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Willis Towers Watson has beaten earnings in each of the last four quarters, and analyst earnings estimates are trending upward, creating a dual tailwind of consistent execution above consensus and improving forward expectations. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the positive estimate revision trend continues for at least 2 more quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFour-quarter beat streaks at modest levels (average 3.8% surprise) can reflect management conservatism on guidance rather than fundamental business acceleration. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.35, Willis Towers Watson trades well below fair value implied by its earnings growth rate, with analysts projecting approximately 29% upside to a consensus target that implies a price-to-earnings re-rating. Sentiment breakdown | Price rises above $298 within 12 months, capturing at least 15% of the 29% analyst upside, as the valuation discount to peers narrows. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsurance broker stocks at 11.6x forward earnings may be cheap for structural reasons including integration execution risk, client retention uncertainty, or margin pressure from technology-driven competition. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 123% relative to net income means the company generates more cash than it reports as earnings — a strong quality indicator reflecting low capital intensity and excellent working capital management. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the structural cash generation quality. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow above net income can reflect deferred tax benefits, client deposit float, or working capital timing that does not represent permanently higher cash generation. | ||
Despite a confirmed death cross pattern and price below the 200-day moving average with a declining slope of -3.1% per month, the MACD is improving and the RSI has recovered to 51, suggesting the technical downtrend may be bottoming. Gates warning | Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months as the technical recovery progresses and buying momentum builds. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses with a confirmed -3.1% per month moving average slope signal sustained institutional selling; technical recovery from confirmed downtrends frequently requires 6-12 months of base-building before sustainable uptrends begin. | ||
Willis Towers Watson has beaten earnings in each of the last four quarters, and analyst earnings estimates are trending upward, creating a dual tailwind of consistent execution above consensus and improving forward expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the positive estimate revision trend continues for at least 2 more quarters.
CounterFour-quarter beat streaks at modest levels (average 3.8% surprise) can reflect management conservatism on guidance rather than fundamental business acceleration.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.6x and a PEG ratio of 0.35, Willis Towers Watson trades well below fair value implied by its earnings growth rate, with analysts projecting approximately 29% upside to a consensus target that implies a price-to-earnings re-rating.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $298 within 12 months, capturing at least 15% of the 29% analyst upside, as the valuation discount to peers narrows.
CounterInsurance broker stocks at 11.6x forward earnings may be cheap for structural reasons including integration execution risk, client retention uncertainty, or margin pressure from technology-driven competition.
Free cash flow conversion of 123% relative to net income means the company generates more cash than it reports as earnings — a strong quality indicator reflecting low capital intensity and excellent working capital management.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming the structural cash generation quality.
CounterFree cash flow above net income can reflect deferred tax benefits, client deposit float, or working capital timing that does not represent permanently higher cash generation.
Despite a confirmed death cross pattern and price below the 200-day moving average with a declining slope of -3.1% per month, the MACD is improving and the RSI has recovered to 51, suggesting the technical downtrend may be bottoming.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- Price crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months as the technical recovery progresses and buying momentum builds.
CounterDeath crosses with a confirmed -3.1% per month moving average slope signal sustained institutional selling; technical recovery from confirmed downtrends frequently requires 6-12 months of base-building before sustainable uptrends begin.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.6 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $250,172 (0.001% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $230
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.42
Upside
+4.7%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 7.4 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Value at 7.2, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Momentum at 4.8, and Peer rank at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.42 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation High Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below $230.60, reaching the stop-loss level and declining more than 10% below the current $257.85, eliminating the near-term recovery thesis.
- P2Four Quarter Beat With Rising Estimates
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P3Superior Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income, declining more than 43 percentage points from the current 123%.
- P4Death Cross Recovery Setup
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope declines below -5% per month, steepening more than 2 percentage points below the current -3.1% and indicating accelerating institutional selling.