Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.50
- ▸Attractively valued
WTFC · Why this verdict
Why Wintrust Financial (WTFC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wintrust Financial is a well-run regional bank trading at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x with a perfect Piotroski score of 8/9, four consecutive earnings beats, and strong net interest margins of 32% — though limited upside to the analyst target and volume distribution in the stock suggest the near-term price appreciation may already be priced in.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Wintrust has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 9.3%, with beats of 9.2%, 7.5%, 12.9%, and 7.8% respectively, demonstrating consistent above-consensus execution. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank earnings beats often reflect credit reserve releases rather than core business outperformance, which can reverse quickly if loan losses increase. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.57 indicate Wintrust is attractively valued relative to its earnings growth trajectory for a regional bank with strong 32% net margins. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings stays below 14x while the bank sustains earnings growth above 5% annually over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional banks are often cheap for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, and a valuation of 11.3x forward earnings may reflect justified discount to money-center peers. | ||
Net margins of 32% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflect a high-quality banking franchise with above-average operational efficiency and balance sheet health. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 28% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBank net margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment; any rate cuts could compress net interest margins and reduce the 32% margin advantage. | ||
Falling on-balance volume despite prices near a 52-week high and within 3% of the analyst target suggests institutional selling is absorbing buying pressure, limiting near-term upside. Momentum breakdown | Volume distribution reverses and on-balance volume turns upward within the next 3 months as the stock finds a new higher base. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume distribution at highs often reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than a directional change, and the underlying business strength can support continued price appreciation. | ||
Wintrust has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 9.3%, with beats of 9.2%, 7.5%, 12.9%, and 7.8% respectively, demonstrating consistent above-consensus execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%.
CounterRegional bank earnings beats often reflect credit reserve releases rather than core business outperformance, which can reverse quickly if loan losses increase.
A forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.57 indicate Wintrust is attractively valued relative to its earnings growth trajectory for a regional bank with strong 32% net margins.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings stays below 14x while the bank sustains earnings growth above 5% annually over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional banks are often cheap for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, and a valuation of 11.3x forward earnings may reflect justified discount to money-center peers.
Net margins of 32% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflect a high-quality banking franchise with above-average operational efficiency and balance sheet health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 28% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterBank net margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment; any rate cuts could compress net interest margins and reduce the 32% margin advantage.
Falling on-balance volume despite prices near a 52-week high and within 3% of the analyst target suggests institutional selling is absorbing buying pressure, limiting near-term upside.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Volume distribution reverses and on-balance volume turns upward within the next 3 months as the stock finds a new higher base.
CounterVolume distribution at highs often reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than a directional change, and the underlying business strength can support continued price appreciation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,260,674 (0.032% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 2.0 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.70
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.14
Upside
+1.3%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Technical at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Sentiment at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Insider at 3.8, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Consecutive Earnings Beats
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 16x, exceeding the current 11.3x by more than 40%.
- P3Strong Margin Quality Profile
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25%, declining more than 7 percentage points from the current 32%.
- P4Volume Distribution At Target
Trip ifPrice drops below $149.50, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 4.6% below the current $156.70.