Value
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.4 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.4x
- ▸PEG: 3.10
- ▸Expensive valuation
WST · Why this verdict
Why West Pharmaceutical Services, I (WST) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
West Pharmaceutical Services is a healthcare components manufacturer with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats averaging 18.2% above estimates, and strong revenue growth of 21% — though its current price has reached the prior analyst target, making near-term entry timing unfavorable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
West Pharmaceutical carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat rating, and strong operating margins of 17%, marking it as a compounder-quality business with durable competitive advantages in pharmaceutical packaging. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above and operating margins stay above 15% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWide moat assessments in healthcare components can erode if pharmaceutical manufacturers consolidate purchasing or bring packaging in-house, reducing West Pharma's pricing power. | ||
West Pharmaceutical has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 18.2%, most recently delivering a 27.1% beat in April 2026. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 27.1% beat in the most recent quarter may set a high baseline expectation that is difficult to sustain, compressing future surprise potential. | ||
Revenue growth of 21% year-over-year and strong earnings growth place West Pharmaceutical among the industry growth leaders in its peer group, supported by a Piotroski-validated balance sheet. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 12% annually and earnings growth stays above 15% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| Counter21% revenue growth may reflect post-pandemic pharmaceutical restocking that normalizes lower, making current growth rates misleading as a baseline for forward projections. | ||
Dependence on single-source raw material suppliers creates a supply chain concentration risk that could disrupt production and cause cost spikes if a key supplier experiences capacity constraints or quality failures. Bear case | No production disruptions attributable to single-source supply failures are reported over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSingle-source supply arrangements are often accompanied by long-term contracts and strategic supplier relationships that reduce disruption probability relative to spot-market procurement. | ||
West Pharmaceutical carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a wide economic moat rating, and strong operating margins of 17%, marking it as a compounder-quality business with durable competitive advantages in pharmaceutical packaging.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above and operating margins stay above 15% over the next 12 months.
CounterWide moat assessments in healthcare components can erode if pharmaceutical manufacturers consolidate purchasing or bring packaging in-house, reducing West Pharma's pricing power.
West Pharmaceutical has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 18.2%, most recently delivering a 27.1% beat in April 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterA 27.1% beat in the most recent quarter may set a high baseline expectation that is difficult to sustain, compressing future surprise potential.
Revenue growth of 21% year-over-year and strong earnings growth place West Pharmaceutical among the industry growth leaders in its peer group, supported by a Piotroski-validated balance sheet.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 12% annually and earnings growth stays above 15% over the next 12 months.
Counter21% revenue growth may reflect post-pandemic pharmaceutical restocking that normalizes lower, making current growth rates misleading as a baseline for forward projections.
Dependence on single-source raw material suppliers creates a supply chain concentration risk that could disrupt production and cause cost spikes if a key supplier experiences capacity constraints or quality failures.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- No production disruptions attributable to single-source supply failures are reported over the next 12 months.
CounterSingle-source supply arrangements are often accompanied by long-term contracts and strategic supplier relationships that reduce disruption probability relative to spot-market procurement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.4 |
| ROA | 7.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 9.0 |
| Net margin | 8.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 3.9 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 49% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 96)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=3)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $5,443,749 (0.019% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.42
- ▸Above max pain $270
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.65
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Momentum at 7.7 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.7, Catalyst at 7.6, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Value at 3.0, Technical at 3.6, and Growth at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.65 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Perfect Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7, declining more than 2 points from the perfect score of 9 out of 9.
- P2Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 5% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P3Revenue Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 8% year-over-year, declining more than 13 percentage points from the current 21%.
- P4Single Source Supplier Risk
Trip ifPrice drops below $290.73, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 12% below the current $331.43.