Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
WOR · Why this verdict
Why Worthington Enterprises (WOR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Worthington Enterprises has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and is showing strong momentum with rising volume and on-balance volume accumulation, but the stock is trading above its analyst target with negative upside remaining and faces earnings event risk within 7 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is trading above the analyst consensus price target with a negative 0.6% upside, meaning the market has priced in all expected near-term value and there is no margin of safety for new buyers. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 15% following the upcoming earnings report, reopening a positive upside gap. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStocks can trade above analyst targets for extended periods when business momentum is strong; the negative upside to the current target does not preclude the targets being raised post-earnings. | ||
Worthington Enterprises has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 26% positive surprise in June 2025, and delivered 24% year-over-year revenue growth, indicating the business is scaling effectively. Earnings | At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, sustaining the beat pattern and confirming operational momentum. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss quarter in December 2025 produced a negative 8% surprise, and the upcoming earnings in 7 days introduces binary uncertainty about whether the recent beat streak will continue. | ||
The stock is demonstrating strong technical momentum with RSI at 77, above all major moving averages, and rising on-balance volume accumulation, all consistent with a stock in an active upward trend with broad market participation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum sustains over the next 6 months with RSI holding above 55 after a natural digestion of the current overbought reading. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI at 77 is in overbought territory and the moving average slope is flat to negative on a long-term basis, suggesting this is potential late-cycle distribution rather than the early stage of a sustained move. | ||
The elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.35 combined with earnings due in 7 days suggests options market participants are positioning more heavily for downside than upside around the binary event, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the upcoming results. Options | The put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 within 30 days following earnings, as the uncertainty resolves and bearish option hedges are closed. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios before earnings can represent institutional hedging of long positions rather than outright bearish bets, and may unwind quickly on a positive earnings surprise. | ||
The stock is trading above the analyst consensus price target with a negative 0.6% upside, meaning the market has priced in all expected near-term value and there is no margin of safety for new buyers.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by more than 15% following the upcoming earnings report, reopening a positive upside gap.
CounterStocks can trade above analyst targets for extended periods when business momentum is strong; the negative upside to the current target does not preclude the targets being raised post-earnings.
Worthington Enterprises has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 26% positive surprise in June 2025, and delivered 24% year-over-year revenue growth, indicating the business is scaling effectively.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- At least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports show positive earnings surprises, sustaining the beat pattern and confirming operational momentum.
CounterThe one miss quarter in December 2025 produced a negative 8% surprise, and the upcoming earnings in 7 days introduces binary uncertainty about whether the recent beat streak will continue.
The stock is demonstrating strong technical momentum with RSI at 77, above all major moving averages, and rising on-balance volume accumulation, all consistent with a stock in an active upward trend with broad market participation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum sustains over the next 6 months with RSI holding above 55 after a natural digestion of the current overbought reading.
CounterRSI at 77 is in overbought territory and the moving average slope is flat to negative on a long-term basis, suggesting this is potential late-cycle distribution rather than the early stage of a sustained move.
The elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.35 combined with earnings due in 7 days suggests options market participants are positioning more heavily for downside than upside around the binary event, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the upcoming results.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 within 30 days following earnings, as the uncertainty resolves and bearish option hedges are closed.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios before earnings can represent institutional hedging of long positions rather than outright bearish bets, and may unwind quickly on a positive earnings surprise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.2 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 40% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,741,160 (0.218% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.62
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:45d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.47
Upside
-2.4%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.47 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.5, Growth at 6.3, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Insider at 3.4, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Growth Trajectory
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in the upcoming earnings report or in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 within 60 days, signaling the current overbought momentum has reversed into a downtrend.
- P3Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price drops below $55, more than 8% below the current $59.85, confirming the negative upside scenario has materialized.
- P4Elevated Put Call Event Risk
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio rises above 3.5 following the earnings event, indicating bearish positioning has increased rather than resolved.