Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.87
WIT · Why this verdict
Why Wipro (WIT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wipro Limited is an IT services provider trading 21% above analyst consensus targets, in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average, with perfectly flat earnings surprises across all 4 recent quarters — a combination of signals that offers no compelling entry thesis at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a growth score of 3.1 out of 10 driven by modest earnings growth of 1.7% and limited revenue expansion, Wipro is in a low-growth phase that does not justify premium positioning relative to higher-growth IT services peers. Bear case | Revenue growth accelerates above 10% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, as AI-related demand translates into measurable contract wins. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIT services companies are inflecting toward AI-enabled services that carry higher margins; even modest revenue growth could produce outsized earnings growth if the services mix shifts toward higher-value offerings. | ||
At $2.30, Wipro trades 21% above analyst consensus price targets, creating an asymmetry ratio of -1.4 — for every dollar of potential upside based on analyst expectations, the stock offers 1.4 dollars of downside risk, making the risk/reward unfavorable at current levels. Bear case | Analyst price targets are raised above $2.50 within 6 months following improved earnings results, or the stock pulls back below $2.00 to re-align with existing targets. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIT services stocks often trade above consensus targets when the market anticipates an AI-driven demand recovery that analysts have not yet built into models; the premium to targets may reflect rational forward-looking optimism. | ||
Wipro's earnings have been perfectly flat across all 4 recent quarters, with actual results matching estimates to the penny at $0.04 per quarter and an average surprise of -0.7% — indicating the business is neither growing nor deteriorating but is in a holding pattern that offers no earnings momentum catalyst. Earnings | Earnings per quarter grows above $0.05 for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, confirming a resumption of earnings growth above the current flat trajectory. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPerfectly consistent earnings delivery without misses demonstrates predictability and execution discipline; in a challenging IT spending environment, maintaining a flat earnings run-rate may represent stabilization before an eventual inflection. | ||
Wipro's price is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -3.8% per 30 days, confirming an established medium-term downtrend — despite technical green flags in on-balance volume and MACD, the primary trend remains bearish. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above for at least 20 consecutive trading days, reversing the confirmed downtrend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume alongside a downtrending price is a bullish divergence that historically precedes a reversal; the MACD improving while below the moving average may be a leading indicator of a trend change. | ||
With a growth score of 3.1 out of 10 driven by modest earnings growth of 1.7% and limited revenue expansion, Wipro is in a low-growth phase that does not justify premium positioning relative to higher-growth IT services peers.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth accelerates above 10% year-over-year for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, as AI-related demand translates into measurable contract wins.
CounterIT services companies are inflecting toward AI-enabled services that carry higher margins; even modest revenue growth could produce outsized earnings growth if the services mix shifts toward higher-value offerings.
At $2.30, Wipro trades 21% above analyst consensus price targets, creating an asymmetry ratio of -1.4 — for every dollar of potential upside based on analyst expectations, the stock offers 1.4 dollars of downside risk, making the risk/reward unfavorable at current levels.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are raised above $2.50 within 6 months following improved earnings results, or the stock pulls back below $2.00 to re-align with existing targets.
CounterIT services stocks often trade above consensus targets when the market anticipates an AI-driven demand recovery that analysts have not yet built into models; the premium to targets may reflect rational forward-looking optimism.
Wipro's earnings have been perfectly flat across all 4 recent quarters, with actual results matching estimates to the penny at $0.04 per quarter and an average surprise of -0.7% — indicating the business is neither growing nor deteriorating but is in a holding pattern that offers no earnings momentum catalyst.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per quarter grows above $0.05 for at least 2 consecutive reported quarters, confirming a resumption of earnings growth above the current flat trajectory.
CounterPerfectly consistent earnings delivery without misses demonstrates predictability and execution discipline; in a challenging IT spending environment, maintaining a flat earnings run-rate may represent stabilization before an eventual inflection.
Wipro's price is below its 200-day moving average with a slope of -3.8% per 30 days, confirming an established medium-term downtrend — despite technical green flags in on-balance volume and MACD, the primary trend remains bearish.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above for at least 20 consecutive trading days, reversing the confirmed downtrend.
CounterRising on-balance volume alongside a downtrending price is a bullish divergence that historically precedes a reversal; the MACD improving while below the moving average may be a leading indicator of a trend change.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 6.5 |
| Net margin | 6.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.9 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 176%
- ▸Above max pain $1
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.94
Upside
-29.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 77
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.94 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Peer rank at 7.2, and Value at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Catalyst at 3.6, and Growth at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Targets
Trip ifPrice rises above $2.70, more than 17% above the current $2.30, while analyst targets remain below $2.50.
- P2Flat Earnings No Growth Signal
Trip ifQuarterly earnings per share falls below $0.03, more than 25% below the current $0.04 run-rate, for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Below 200 Ma
Trip ifPrice drops below $2.00, more than 13% below the current $2.30, with the 200-day moving average slope declining for more than 60 consecutive trading days.
- P4Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below 3% year-over-year for at least 3 consecutive reported quarters.